Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
250 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2000

CURRENTLY: SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z CONTINUES TO SHOW AN EAST TO WEST
ORIENTED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE VAD WIND PROFILE AT KTLH SHOWS THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE MODELS WERE INDICATING. THUS...THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT WAS WEAK AND PUSHED INLAND FASTER THAN EXPECTED.
THE VISIBLE SATTELITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SEA BREEZE ALREADY MOVED
INLAND TO NEAR THE FLORIDA-GEORGIA BORDER NORTH OF THE TALLAHASSEE
AREA. LOOKS LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-10 AND THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BIG BEND.

MODEL COMPARISONS/ZONE FORECASTS: SHORT RANGE MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND SHOW THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT FROM NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS AT 18Z WILL
CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST BUT WILL STAY NORTH
OF MY CWA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MODELS SHOW THE
FRONT GETTING NO CLOSER THAN CENTRAL GEORGIA THRU 12Z TUESDAY. FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL GO WITH PERSISTENCE. AFTERNOON MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS ALL SHOW
A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUING OVER THE AREA WITH
PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 IN...LIS < -5...AND UNMODIFIED CAPE
BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. THE UNKNOWN FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTH
OF THE SEA BREEZE. MODELS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE TO 700 MB FLOW WILL
BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 10 MPH OR LESS. FWC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FLIP-FLOPPING ON POPS THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH THE LOWER NUMBERS OFF
THE 12Z RUNS. WILL STAY MORE IN LINE WITH THE FAN NUMBERS AND GO
WITH CHANCE POPS DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THE EVENING PERIOD.

EXTENDED: LATEST MRF SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE HANGING ON OVER MY CWA AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. POPS AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO.

MARINE: NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
CURRENTLY WINDS ARE SE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS AND SHOULD VEER TO
THE SOUTH BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY DURING EACH AFTERNOON 15 KNOTS OR LESS
BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS EACH EVENING AFTER THE ONSHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES. SEAS WILL BE UNDER 4 FEET.

FWC/FAN TEMPS: VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MIN TEMPS AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE WARMER FWC MAX TEMPS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
TLH  71/95 71/94 2424
PFN  74/87 74/87 2424
DHN  73/92 73/92 2424
ABY  72/92 72/92 2424
VLD  71/94 71/94 2424

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

BARRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
350 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2000

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

210 PM     2 S HOPEFUL              FL    .75 INCH HAIL.
06/18/00   MITCHELL