Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
215 AM EDT MON APR 24 2000

WILL WE GET RAIN OR WILL WE NOT GET RAIN TODAY. 1000 MB LOW IN AR
THIS MORNING...MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE IT PEGGED PRETTY GOOD. HARD TO
IDENTIFY WHERE THE WARM FRONT IS EXACTLY.  HOWEVER...IT APPEARS TO
BE ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF 65 DEWPOINTS IN EASTERN LA AND
SOUTHERN MS. ALOFT A FEW JETSTREAKS TO CONTEND WITH...ONE EAST OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...ANOTHER COMING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND ONE COMING DOWN ACROSS THE INTER
MOUNTAIN REGION OF THE WEST. THEIR INTERACTION WILL PROBABLY BE A
KEY TO OUR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS MAINTAIN GENERAL AGREEMENT MOVING THE LOW
EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN GA BY THIS EVENING AT 00Z.  AVN CENTERS THE
LOW IN NORTHERN GA WHILE THE ETA AND NGM DEPICT THE LOW AS A WIDE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF GA AND EASTERN AL. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM N GA IN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL AL AT THIS
TIME...THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR SE AL COUNTIES BY 06Z...PASS
THROUGH TLH BY EARLY MORNING TUESDAY...AND BE CLEAR OF OUR CWA BY 18Z
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE
TODAY...ALSO LENDING CREEDANCE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

WILL INCREASE THE POPS IN THE SECOND PERIOD OVER THE PREVIOUS ZONES
TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS THE BOARD.  WILL STAY PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
ON TEMPS.

COASTAL WATERS: WINDS CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO REACT TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. AT THE BUOY SOUTH OF PANAMA CITY...WINDS ARE ABOUT
15KTS AND SEAS ARE ABOUT 3 FT. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE FORECAST THAT
WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND ALSO WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

EXTENDED: WONDER WHERE THE MRF WILL TAKE US THIS MORNING. EACH NIGHT IT
TAKES US ON A ROLLER COASTER RIDE.  OUR WEATHER MAKER TROUGH TODAY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK.  THE MRF
BUILDS A RIDGE IN THE MID SECTION OF THE U.S. WITH A WEAK SHORT/WAVE
COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WHILE THE UKMET BRINGS A HARDY
SHORT WAVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER: NOTHING TODAY. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR INLAND COUNTIES
ON TUESDAY.

PRELIMIMINARY NUMBERS:

TLH  083/058 078/048  4300
PFN  076/065 074/055  4300
DHN  080/060 075/050  6300
ABY  080/059 075/050  6300
VLD  083/060 078/049  5300

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...SCA SUWANNEE RIVER-DESTIN OUT TO 60NM.

WATSON

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-241200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EDT MON APR 24 2000

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY.
INCREASING MOISTURE...WARM TEMPERATURES AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED
SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE
PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND OF FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.

PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL. THEREFORE STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY GUSTING AT TIMES TO 20 TO
25 MPH. THE COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY ON TUESDAY PASSING DOTHAN...ALBANY AND PANAMA CITY
BEFORE SUNRISE...TALLAHASSEE BY MID MORNING...AND VALDOSTA BY
MIDDAY. CLEARING SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR LISTEN TO
NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

WATSON