Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
220 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2000

CURRENTLY: CWA IS UNDER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 22Z. LINE OF
CONVECTION CROSSING APALACHICOLA RIVER AT THIS TIME....WITH MAIN
CONCERN DAMAGING WINDS. SEE SPC GUIDANCE ON SEVERE TSTM WATCH #91
FOR MORE DETAILS.

FORECAST: 17Z RUC PROGS COLD FRONT TO REACH AQQ-ABY LINE BY 03Z AS
UPPER SHORTWAVE TRANSLATES E TO TN VALLEY. MOIST FLUX DIVERGENCE
PROGGED TO HAVE SPREAD OVER MOST OF CWA BY SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
...SO WILL TIME END OF PCPN ACCORDINGLY FOR ERN ZONES. MUCH OF
WRN CWA SHOULD SEE PCPN ENDING BY THIS EVENING...SO WILL HAVE
LEFTOVER POPS FOR SOME AREAS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO SHEAR NE OVER MID-ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...LEAVING CWA IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AT
THE SURFACE...STRONG NW FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CWA BEHIND THE FRONT.  SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO DRIFT TO CAROLINAS THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW CONDITIONS. WILL NOT DEVIATE FAR FROM GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

MARINE: NW FLOW BEHIND FRONT SHOULD WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TONIGHT. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD LOOSEN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...
ALLOWING WINDS TO SLACKEN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

EXTENDED (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY): MRF ADVERTISES SRN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH TO CROSS THE
CWA WEDNESDAY. WILL MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

ALL INPUT IS WELCOME.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
TLH  047/065 035/069  4000
PFN  049/063 045/065  2000
DHN  045/059 037/064  2000
ABY  046/061 036/065  4000
VLD  050/062 035/068  5000

.TLH...
AL...SEVERE TSTM WATCH TIL 4 PM CST.
GA...SEVERE TSTM WATCH TIL 5 PM EST.
FL...SEVERE TSTM WATCH TIL 5 PM EST.
     SCA TNGT SUWANNEE RIVER TO DESTIN OUT TO 60 NM.

TJT

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ750-
755-770-775-111800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1235 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2000

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND AND PANHANDLE UNTIL 5 PM EST (4 PM CST)...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 5 PM EST (4 PM
CST) FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND PANHANDLE. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
...SEVERAL WHICH WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE...WERE LOCATED FROM EAST
OF MOBILE NORTHEAST THROUGH JACKSON COUNTY FLORIDA...DOTHAN ALABAMA
AND TOWARDS COLUMBUS GEORGIA. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED
FROM JACKSON COUNTY FLORIDA THROUGH HOUSTON COUNTY ALABAMA WHERE
SEVERAL OFFICIALS HAVE REPORTED POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUDS OR TORNADOS AS
WELL AS HAIL. THIS LINE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THEN BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS.

THEY ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WHICH WILL PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE REGION TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND
AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE ON THE WEB AT
WWW.NWS.FSU.EDU.

BLOCK

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>010-012>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-157>161-
GMZ750-755-770-775-112230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
512 PM EST SAT MAR 11 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 91 EXPIRED AT 5 PM EST (4 PM CST).
HOWEVER...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...MAINLY EAST OF A DESTIN FLORIDA-DOTHAN ALABAMA LINE.
BE PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
YOUR AREA.

TJT