Severe Thunderstorm Warning 36, NWS Salt Lake City, UT

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
1005 AM MDT FRI SEP 01 2000

SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER UTAH
THROUGH TODAY. COOL AND DRIER AIR WILL BE OVER FOR THE LABOR DAY
WEEKEND.

DISCUSSION...ALL INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR A VERY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DAY.  THE MAIN CONCERN IS IF WE WILL GET SEVERE STORMS.  BECAUSE OF
THE VERY STRONG FLOW...STORM MOVEMENT THIS MORNING IS CLOSE TO 50
KTS...THERE IS PROBABLY A HIGH RISK OF SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE
STORMS GET A LITTLE STRONGER LATER TODAY.  THERE IS ALSO ENOUGH
DYNAMIC SUPPORT TO RAISE THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL ALTHOUGH THE
RISK FACTOR FOR THE HAIL IS MUCH LESS THAN FOR THE WINDS.  CURRENT
FORECASTS HAVE THIS WELL COVERED AND ISSUED A HEADS UP TYPE SPECIAL
STATEMENT EARLIER SO IT MOSTLY A MATTER OF WAIT AND SEE AT THIS
TIME.  KMTX IS SHOWING RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN THE SUNNY AREAS WEST OF
THE SLC-PVU AREA AND EXPECT THIS WILL BE THE TREND TODAY.  THERE MAY
BE BRIEF STABILIZATION RIGHT BEHIND EACH CLUSTER OF STORMS BUT IT IS
NOT GOING TO LAST LONG AND THAT CAN ALSO BE SEEN ON KMTX WHERE A NEW
CELL AND LIGHTNING HAVE POPPED UP SOUTHWEST OF PVU ONLY ABOUT AN
HOUR HAVE THE LAST STORM MOVED PAST.

ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL
THE MAIN TROF AXIS FROM THE EJECTION LOW MOVES PAST.  EARLY IDEA IS
THAT WE MAY NEED TO ADD A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO A LITTLE MORE OF
NORTHWEST UT FOR SAT AS PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECASTS STILL FAIRLY
HIGH AND THE SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TROF WILL BE
APPROACHING IN THE AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE CAPPING NEAR OR A
LITTLE BELOW 500MB SO THESE PROBABLY WONT REACH THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH BUT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP BELOW THE CAP.
BUT WONT WORRY ABOUT THAT UNTIL THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS THERE IS
ENOUGH ON THE PLATE TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING.  NO UPDATES AT THIS
TIME.

SLC 761 CDC 74-  SANDERS

.SLC...NONE.

IDZ024-025-UTZ001>021-WYZ021-012100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
900 AM MDT FRI SEP 1 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER UTAH TODAY...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER UTAH AGAIN TODAY.  THE
MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL NOT BE HEAVY RAINS LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.  INSTEAD SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
OVER THE GREAT BASIN TODAY.  THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL COMBINE
WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER CONSIDERABLE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STATEWIDE.  STRONG WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MIXED DOWN TO THE GROUND BY THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS OF
OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...ONE INCH OR GREATER DIAMETER
HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ALTHOUGH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS...7THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOO FAST
TO ALLOW SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINS.

PERSONS TRAVELING OR PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS INCLUDING STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.