Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2000

MAIN FOCUS THIS PD WILL BE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN/FLASH FLOODING AS SYSTEM EVOLVES INTO MCS OVERNIGHT.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES CDFNT LOCATED S OF ICT TO JUST S OF
MCI.  DEW POINTS POOLING IN THE LOW 70S ALONG FRONT WITH MID TO
UPPER 60 DEW POINTS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CWA.  SFC TEMPS HAVE
QUICKLY CLIMBED INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE CWA.  SGF 18Z
SOUNDING SHOWS ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF NEAR 4000 J/KG
AND LI'S OF -11.  CAP STILL IN PLACE FROM ABOUT 4 KFT TO 8 KFT.
SEVERAL BOUNDARIES APPARENT ACROSS THE CWA AS EVIDENCED BY THE
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SEVERAL WEAK SHOWERS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ALONG ONE OF THESE BOUNDARIES BUT HAVE SINCE FALLEN APART.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HAVE GONE WITH AN
AVN/ETA COMBINATION FOR GUIDANCE.   MAIN QUESTION THIS EVENING IS
WHETHER OR NOT CAP WILL BE BROKEN.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE WE WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR MAIN ACTION TO TAKE PLACE AS
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND UPPER DYNAMICS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING.  850 JET INCREASES TO OVER 50 KTS BY 06Z.  PW VALUES WILL
BE OVER 1.50 IN. FROM SE KS INTO W CNTRL MO.  SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH
SFC LOW PUSHING NE ALONG FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MOVING INTO
AREA...WILL LIKELY SEE A PROLONGED MCS HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS W
PORTION OF CWA OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.  MAY
INITIALLY SEE SCT SEVERE WX LATER THIS EVENING AS CAP ERODES...BUT
EXPECT TO EVOLVE INTO MCS OVERNIGHT.

FFG STILL FAIRLY HIGH...HOWEVER AREA EXPECTING THE HEAVY RAIN
TONIGHT/TUESDAY HAS RECEIVED THE MOST RAIN OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS
WITHIN THE CWA.  COORDINATION WITH ICT/TSA OFFICES AND GENERAL
CONSENSUS WAS TO ISSUE A FFA FOR PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA.

FRONT SHOULD FINALLY GET A KICK AND PUSH EASTWARD ON TUESDAY WITH
THE MAIN CONVECTION OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT.  WILL GO LIKELY ALL
ZONES ON TUESDAY WITH FROPA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WILL CONTINUE
LOW POPS ACROSS THE E TUESDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING TAKING PLACE
ACROSS THE W.  EXTENDED PD LOOKS DRY WITH RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA.

FCSTID = 5
SGF   63  71  49  75 /  50  70  10   5
JLN   66  72  50  77 /  70  70  10   5
UNO   65  78  54  74 /  30  60  30   5
VIH   63  68  49  73 /  60  90  30   5

.SGF...
KS...FFA...BOURBON/CRAWFORD/CHEROKEE COUNT[IES
MO...FFA...NORTH AND WEST OF A WARSAW TO PINEVILLE LINE.

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-090500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
635 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2000

...TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN KANSAS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING
THE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP...SOME OF THE STOERMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN A FEW
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES THE CITIES OF JOPLIN...SPRINGFIELD...
CAMDENTON...NEVADA...AND FORT SCOTT KANSAS.