Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
215 PM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXIST THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA AS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO VERY WARM MOIST UNSTABLE AIR.  SEVERE ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT.

VERY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.  A SQUALL LINE ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE STATE ON SUNDAY.  LOOKS LIKE THIS
COULD BE A MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON SEVERE EVENT FOR CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.  ETA APPEARS TOO FAST IN MOVING FRONT EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY 12Z.  NGM ARE SLOWER AND BRING FRONT TO EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY MID DAY.  WITH FRONT NOW IN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...FAVOR
MORE MODEST MOVEMENT OF NGM/AVN SOLUTION.  WITH SQUALL LINE
FORMATION AHEAD OF FRONT VERY LIKELY...WILL GO WITH STRONG WORDING
FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.

FRONT PUSHES TO EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER CUT OFF WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AREA.  ALTHOUGH LOW LEVELS WILL
BE COOLER...UPPER LEVELS WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

AFTER SYSTEM MOVES EAST BY TUESDAY MORNING...NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED MCS CHALLENGES WILL BE RE-ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MID WEEK.

.RAH...NONE.

SWH

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH, NC
1115 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-271700-
ALAMANCE NC-ANSON NC-CHATHAM NC-CUMBERLAND NC-DAVIDSON NC-DURHAM NC-
EDGECOMBE NC-FORSYTH NC-FRANKLIN NC-GRANVILLE NC-GUILFORD NC-
HALIFAX NC-HARNETT NC-HOKE NC-JOHNSTON NC-LEE NC-MONTGOMERY NC-
MOORE NC-NASH NC-ORANGE NC-PERSON NC-RANDOLPH NC-RICHMOND NC-
SAMPSON NC-SCOTLAND NC-STANLY NC-VANCE NC-WAKE NC-WARREN NC-WAYNE NC-
WILSON NC-
1115 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2000

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL POSE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NORTHERN SECTIONS HAVE THE GREATEST RISK.

.SKYWARN SPOTTERS...
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING.  SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO REPORT THREATENING WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.SYNOPTIC PATTERN...
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FORMATION.

.HAZARDOUS WEATHER DETAILS...
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING WILL BE FROM DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  LARGE HAIL AND
INTENSE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 30 MILES AN HOUR.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL WEATHER NEWS MEDIA FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

ANOTHER STATEMENT CONCERNING THE OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ISSUED BY NOON TODAY.

SWH