Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
116 PM MDT SAT JUL 22 2000

LOW TSRA POTENTIAL WITH WARMING TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS.
HINT OF DRY TSRA THREAT SUN AND MON...ESPECIALLY W OF SERN CO
MOUNTAINS.

TNGT: 18Z/22 SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A MULTITUDE OF "OLD" OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS ERN CO AND CNTRL/SRN PLAINS.  LATEST VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING CU/TCU FIELD DEVELOPING ON THESE FOCAL POINT AREAS.
THERE WERE A COUPLE IN EXTREME NERN CO.  NEXT WAS AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY NEAR A KAKO-KITR-KDDC LINE FROM LAST NIGHTS LINEAR MCS
FOLLOWING THE LARGER MCC/MCS.  ANOTHER "OLD" OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS
LIKELY FROM NEAR A KLAA-KEHA-KAMA-INTO N CNTRL TX FROM LAST NIGHTS
LEADING LARGER MCC/MCS.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CAME UP THE AR RIVER VALLEY
LAST NIGHT AND HARD TO FIND AT THE MOMENT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO
HARD TO FIND AS IT IS FAIRLY CONTAMINATED BY MCS ACTIVITY.  MAY
EXTENDED FROM NR KTAD-TX PANHANDLE-CNTRL/SERN TX.  SO...LOTS OF LOW
LEVEL FOCAL POINTS WAITING FOR SOME LARGE SCALE ASSISTANCE IN TSRA
DEVELOPMENT.  LIKE YDA...CU/TCU STARTING LATE AND SO FAR NO LIGHTNING
STRIKES SHOWING UP.  AT THIS MOMENT...THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A
LIFTING MECHANISM IN CWFA TO SUPPORT FAIRLY STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PER PUB 88D VAD WIND PROFILE...SFC-4K FT AGL ELY(5-10KTS) AND 4K-10K
FT AGL NW(20-30KTS).  SO FAR...THIS HAS ONLY CREATED TCU "ORPHAN
ANVILS."  HARD TO FIND ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH NW-NLY
FLOW CNTRL ROCKIES PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP. ALSO...
APPEARS TO BE DRYING AT MID/HIGH LEVELS.  100-150MB STILL REMAINS
ACROSS SERN CO AND ENOUGH FOR TSRA PRODUCTION.  SHORT RANGE MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN LARGE SCALE FEATURES...BUT A DIFFERENT VIEWS IN
SENSIBLE WEATHER.  ETA/AVN NOT PRINTING OUT ANY QPF TNGT...WHILE
MESO-ETA HINTING AT SOMETHING FORMING AROUND THE RATON MESA AND
POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO EXTREME SERN CO THIS EVE. ALL MISSING "OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES." ANY CLOSEST MCS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN TX
PANHANDLE NEAR FRONTAL/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SLY 20-30KT LLJ THEN
PROPAGATE S-SEWD WITH MEAN FLOW. WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF -SHRA/-TSRA
DIURNAL.  WILL MAKE COVERAGE CALL BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS
BEFORE RELEASE.  SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SW/CNTRL MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE
EVEN A LESSER THREAT AS A RELATIVELY DEEPER AND DRIER AIRMASS IS IN
PLACE.  SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S...AND ALS HAS BEEN
MIXING INTO THE 20S FOR DEW POINTS IN THE AFTN.  UNCERTAIN ABOUT
THE STRATUS/FOG POTENTIAL IN AR RIVER VALLEY TNGT. PBL CERTAINLY IS
STILL MOIST. WILL JUST STICK WITH "PARTLY CLOUDY." OTHERWISE CLEARING
ELSEWHERE. PERSISTENT ON LOWS.

SUN-MON: LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS AREA AND EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING IT STICKING AROUND AT
LEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF JULY.  SO..."MONSOON" APPEARS TO BE
SHUTDOWN UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.  WILL NEED TO RELY ON ALREADY
PRESENT MOISTURE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ADVECTION FROM THE N AND E.
500MB HEIGHTS RISE ON SUN AND REMAIN MON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER
SUPPORT TO ENHANCE AFTN/EVE CONVECTION SUN-MON.  MODELS SUGGESTING
SURFACE-700MB MOISTURE WILL BE DRYING UP...LEAVING ONLY AOA 500MB
MOISTURE. FWC MOS TEMPS HAVE "SKIED" INTO 100-105F FOR LOWER AR
RIVER VALLEY FOR SUN...QUITE A CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.  WILL NEED
TO GET SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 30/40S THOUGH.  CERTAINLY LOOKS
LIKE 90S IN THE PLAINS SUN...WITH MON POSSIBLE HOTTER...AS COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH NRN ROCKIES AND SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGHING
DEVELOPS IN CO PLAINS. MODELS PROGGING RELATIVELY DEEP DRY AIRMASS UP
TO 700MB WITH 500MB MOISTURE AROUND CWFA...SO ANY TSRA POTENTIAL MAY
BE "DRY" WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.  SUB-CLOUD LAYER
LAPSE RATES PROGGED AROUND 9.0 C/KM.  WILL KEEP 10/20 POPS FOR SUN
AFTN FOR ALL CWFA.  WILL LEAVE SMALL POP MENTION OUT SUN NGT...EXCEPT
SERN CO PLAINS AS IF ANYTHING FORMS IN SERN CO MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT
PLAINS SHOULD SHIFT EWD OUT INTO THE PLAINS BY SUN EVE.  60-72HR AVN
A LITTLE DIFFERENT THAN OLD MRF RUNS AS COLD FRONT MAY OR MAY NOT NOW
MAKE IT INTO ERN CO.  MAY WAIT UNTIL TUE. POSSIBLE MCS IN SD/NE MON
NGT WHICH COULD SHIFT FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN CNTRL PLAINS.  WITH
PRECIPITATION ALREADY MENTION IN EFP AND 500MB LURKING AROUND...HARD
TO PULL MENTION.  SO...WILL GO WITH LOW POPS.  STUCK CLOSE TO MAV MOS
NUMBERS.

EXTENDED(TUE-THU): WHEN WILL THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH SHIFT EWD
TO ALLOW "MONSOONAL" MOISTURE TO RETURN??  ALL EXTENDED PROGS KEEP
IT NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  WITH SOME 500MB MOISTURE
TRAPPED IN UPPER HIGH...CAN'T RULE OUT DIURNAL TSRA.  HARD TO SAY
IF THE FQRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO ERN CO TUE/WED.  WILL CONTINUE GENERIC
"CHANCE OF" BUT FEEL THE THREAT IS MAINLY "ISOLATED TO SCATTERED"
OUTSIDE OF ANY MESO-SCALE SURPRISES.  NEAR SEASONAL TEMPS.

.PUB...NONE.

METZE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
337 PM MDT SAT JUL 22 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0312 PM    CRIPPLE CREEK             CO   .75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   TELLER                         REPORTED BY HAM RADIO
                                          OPERATOR.

0315 PM    1 NE CRIPPLE CREEK        CO   .75 INCH HAIL
07/22/00   TELLER                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.