Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
309 AM MDT FRI SEP 29 2000

...AMOUNT AND STRENGTH OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NEXT 18 HOURS MAIN
CONCERN...

CURRENLY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER GREATER 4 CORNERS REGION MOVING
NORTHEAST. FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AMOUNT OF CG ACTIVITY FOR THIS TIME OF
THE NIGHT AND THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FORCING NOT READILY APPARENT
WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT BELIEVE SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/WAA OCCURRING
OVER AREA (THANKS GOES TO FCSTER ON SHORT TERM DESK FOR POINTING THIS
OUT). ELSEWHERE...JUST SOME HIGH/MID LVL CLOUDS OVER AREA.

SHORT TERM...CONVECTION OVER MTNS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS IT
CONTINUES TO MOVE ENE ACROSS THE STATE. SOME OF THE CLOUDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AM.

FCST...A FAIRLY POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NWS PUB CWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. QUITE A FEW PARAMETERS WILL
BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG CONVECTION...INCLUDING FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
FORCING BOTH IN THE MID LVLS (QG...PVA) AND UPPER LEVELS (FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS). HOWEVER ONE BIG INGREDIENT IS MISSING...AND THAT IS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. CURRENT DWPTS OVER THE REGION ARE IN THE 30S...
AND STATIONS DOWN TO OUR S AND SE ARE ALSO IN THE 30S...SO DO NOT SEE
ANY GOOD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. HOWEVER...POINT
SOUNDINGS FROM GRIDDED DATA INDICATE SOME CAPE (500-1000 J/KG)...SO
WE WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CWA DURING THE NEXT 18
HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG...POSSIBLY MRGNLY SVR.
DETAILS:

...FOR THE MTNS...WILL HAVE SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY WITH
THUNDER LIKELY SAN JUANS/LA GARITAS...CHANCE OF THUNDER REMAINDER OF
MTNS. TONIGHT WILL GO CHANCE OF STORMS EARLY DECREASING LATE.

...FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN TO GO PC EARLY WITH SCTD STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON (WILL MAKE LAST MINUTE DECISION ABOUT A.M. CLOUD COVER
BEFORE SENDING ZFP). FOR TONIGHT...SCTD STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE
FCST. EVEN THOUGH IT IS LATE SEPT...THIS IS A FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM
COMING ACROSS AND BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SOME LATE EVENING THUNDER
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WILL ALSO MENTION LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS ALL AREAS TODAY. SIG WX OUTLOOK WILL REFLECT THIS
AND MAY MENTION THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL (<=1.OO").

AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...GRIDDED DATA INDICATING A 100-120
KNT JET TO COME ONSHORE PAC LATE FRIDAY...AND THEN MOVE E DURING THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL HAVE SOME MARGINAL AFFECT ON OUR WX AS WE WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME WINDS START TO PICK UP OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION
POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS SAT AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE THIS AS A
SIGNIF WIND EVENT AND WILL NOT MENTION IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS ATTM...BUT
WILL PASS ONTO UPCOMING SHIFT.

EXTENDED DATA SHOWS STRONG FLOW REMAINING TO OUR N DURING THIS
PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP LEE SIDE TROUGH IN PLACE WITH SOME PERIODS
OF GUSTY WINDS. MRF AND EC INDICATE FROPA BY WED WITH UPSLOPE
ENSUING.

.PUB...NONE.

COZ058>081-291900-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1121 AM MDT FRI SEP 29 2000

...THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND THE SAN
LUIS VALLEY...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCED
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO EARLIER THIS
MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO.

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING...THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND THE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL ALLOW FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH AND HAIL AROUND 1/2 INCH IN DIAMETER.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.