Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Pueblo, CO

SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO
205 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2000

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THIS CYCLE WILL BE DETERMINING WHICH
DAY...IF ANY...THAT POPS CAN BE REMOVED FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FOR THE PLAINS.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA.  THE GOES SOUNDING DATA AT 1800 UTC INDICATED CAPE OF 1000-2500
J/KG OVER THE ARKANSAS VALLEY AND PLAINS...WITH 500-1000 J/KG IN THE
SAN LUIS VALLEY.  RUC IPV ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED ONE UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER NE UT WITH TWO WEAKER
DISTURBANCES OVER SE CO AND CNTRL NM.  THE SE CO DISTURBANCE MAY
HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE...WITH THE CNTRL NM DISTURBANCE MOVING UP THIS EVENING.
THE RUC SHOWS THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING NE THRU SE CO LATE THIS
EVENING...SO ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH FROM W TO E ACROSS THE PLAINS
LATE THIS EVENING.  THE KPUX WSR-88D REFLECTIVITY WAS SHOWING
A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM SE FREMONT COUNTY INTO SW PUEBLO
COUNTY...WITH ANOTHER BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WRN LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY BORDER EXTENDING INTO SE PUEBLO COUNTY.  THIS WAS
HELPING TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS.  THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A BROAD AREA...WITH
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN THE FAR ERN
PLAINS.  FWC TEMPERATURES TONIGHT LOOK OKAY.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES DEVELOPING NWWD INTO THE
GREAT BASIN AND NRN ROCKIES...WITH THE MONSOONAL PLUME CONTINUING
OVER CO.  BY THURSDAY...THE MODELS WANT TO CENTER THE HIGH OVER CO...
WHICH SHOULD TEND TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE.  HOWEVER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH THE
GENERAL "MONSOON" CIRCULATION CONTINUING.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST ISOLD TO SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CHANGE IN SURFACE MAX
TEMPERATURES WITH PERSISTENT 700 MB TEMPERATURES.

EXTENDED(FRI-SUN): THERE REALLY IS NO CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FROM
WEDNESDAY ON INTO SATURDAY...WITH THE MRF NUDGING THE UPPER HIGH
EWD ON SUN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW PUSHING ONTO THE
CANADA COAST/PACIFIC NW COAST.  THUS...A PERSISTENCE FORECAST IS
IN ORDER FOR BOTH TEMPERATURES AND POPS.

.PUB...NONE.

HAYNES

COZ058>081-221900-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1155 AM MDT TUE AUG 22 2000

...THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO...

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS EVENING...

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL COLORADO TODAY...WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES ROTATING
THROUGH THE FLOW.  THESE DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...
WILL AID IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME...STORMS WHICH DO
FORM ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. THEY WILL HOWEVER...BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.