Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
335 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2000

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SEEMS TO BE WELL-COVERED BY THE MANY SPC
DISCUSSIONS ALREADY ISSUED.  ZONES WILL NATURALLY BE WORDED WITH
SEVERE STORM TERMINOLOGY FOR TONIGHT.

AFTER THE SQUALL LINE PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT... WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO INCREASE.  IT APPEARS THAT WINDS TOMORROW
WILL EASILY REACH WIND ADVISORY LEVELS... POSSIBLY EVEN APPROACH
HIGH WIND WARNING SPEEDS IN THE NORTHWEST.  WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA... AND LEAVE THE
OPTION OF A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.

TRANQUIL WEATHER FOLLOWS... WITH THE BRIEF EXCEPTION OF FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT... WHEN THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  AT THIS POINT... THAT EVENT LOOKS MUCH LESS POTENT
THAN TONIGHT.

FCSTID = 23 = CMS

OKC   52  70  45  65 /  90   0   0   0
HBR   49  72  42  67 / 100   0   0   0
SPS   52  75  45  72 /  80   0   0   0
GAG   46  68  35  58 / 100  10   0   0
PNC   50  68  42  60 /  90  10  10   0
DUA   53  71  45  73 /  80   0   0   0

.OUN...
OK...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
TX...WIND ADVISORY ALL ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-072100-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2000

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT OVER ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS...BUT
TORNADOES ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE THREAT WILL BE GREATEST AFTER DARK OVER CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION... GULF MOISTURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WEST INTO WEST TEXAS.
A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING NORTHEAST FROM NEW MEXICO
AND FAR NORTHERN MEXICO...IS BEGINNING TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

AS THE UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON... A
SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER EASTERN COLORADO. LOW LEVEL SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING
MORE GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. INCREASING WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS
OVER NEW MEXICO... SOUTH OF THE COLORADO LOW... WILL PUSH THE COLD
FRONT RAPIDLY EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS CAPPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON... BUT AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES...LIFTING AT MID LEVELS WILL HELP TO WEAKEN
THE CAP WHILE CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD... THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND FORM A SQUALL LINE. THESE STORMS WILL MOST
LIKELY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN 3
AND 7 PM. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM DURING THAT TIME
AHEAD OF THE FRONT... MAINLY OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE LINE OF STORMS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SWEEP RAPIDLY
EAST DURING THE EVENING... REACHING CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AFTER DARK.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END IN WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS.

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS
WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...AND THEREFORE A CHANCE OF TORNADOES...MAINLY
IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT WILL BE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES WITHIN THE THUNDERSTORM LINE WILL BE GREATER IF
THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE LINE...AND LESS IF THE LINE IS SOLID.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY... AND STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES. SPOTTER
GROUPS IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL LIKELY
REQUIRE ACTIVATION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THOSE IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MOST LIKELY WILL REQUIRE ACTIVATION AFTER DARK.

02