Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
330 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000

SURFACE MAP SHOWS GENERAL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OK WITH FAIRLY
UNIFORM TEMP/MOISTURE CONDITIONS. GENERAL SCENARIO IS THAT OF
UNSTABLE...UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE TODAY.  WATER VAPOR CONTINUES TO SHOW
GOOD MID TO UPPER LEVEL PLUME OF MOIST AIR FEEDING AROUND UPPER HIGH
SITUATED OVER BRO VCNTY. ALL THIS IMPLIES ATMOSPHERE WILL EASILY
OVERTURN WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHING AT
SUNSET.  THERE IS BETTER FLOW ALOFT TODAY COMPARED TO THURSDAY WHICH
SHOULD TEND TO PUSH CELLS NORTHEAST. GUST FRONT INTERACTIONS MAY BE
LESS IMPORTANT FOR PROPAGATION OF CELLS TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY.  DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ANY FEATURES IN LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH
WILL FOCUS INITIATION OF TSRA SO WILL MAINLY FOLLOW SAT/RADAR
TRENDS. CURRENTLY IT APPEARS SPS-LAW CORRIDOR WILL FIRE OFF FIRST.

ETA INDICATES 250 MB JET WILL ROUND UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT WITH LFQ
ACROSS N OK/S KS.  A WARM ADVECTION ZONE ALSO SETS UP ACROSS
KANSAS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING STRENGTH
OVERNIGHT AS THEY ROLL SOUTHEAST FROM COLORADO AND PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. PLACED HIGHEST POPS NORTH AND LOWEST SOUTH TONIGHT...AND
FEEL SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA WILL MAINLY SEE PM/EVE CONVECTION WHILE
NORTHERN HALF HAS A SHOT AT BOTH PM CONVECTION AND ALSO OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY ASSOC WITH UPPER JET.

GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL WORK SOUTH INTO CWA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. BASICALLY WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ALL THROUGH
EXTENDED BUT FEEL SUN NIGHT TO MON NIGHT HAS BEST SHOT AT DROPPING
RAIN AFTER TONIGHT WITH A DECENT SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
CONVECTION.  LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS SEEN THROUGH SUNDAY WITH UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S FOR DAYTIME AND LOW 70S AT NIGHT. DROPPED TEMPS BACK
ACROSS THE BOARD MON-TUES WITH MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER PRECIP CHANCES
ASSOC WITH FRONT.

FCSTID = 33
OKC   72  89  72  90 /  40  30  20  20
HBR   72  92  72  92 /  30  20  30  20
SPS   72  92  72  94 /  60  20  20  20
GAG   70  90  70  92 /  50  30  30  20
PNC   72  89  72  91 /  50  40  30  20
DUA   72  89  72  90 /  30  20  20  20

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-231900-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA... MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CHEROKEE... TO SEILING... TO CHEYENNE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS... HOWEVER THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

DISCUSSION...A VERY MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE CAPPING INVERSION IS ALMOST NON
EXISTENT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. A COUPLE OF THE STORMS IN NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA COULD BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE
THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS A LITTLE STRONGER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.

DUE TO THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET
EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WHERE THEY COULD PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

CJS