Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
250 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2000

MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH REGARD TO DETAILS OF FNTL PASSAGE. AL MDLS
SHOW SLO MOVG CDFNT MOVG THRU FA TNT. AL SHOWG QPF AMTS BTW 1/2 AND
2/3 IN. CUD BE SOME EMBEDDD TSTMS INITIALLY...TIL ARND 06Z OR SO
TNT. SW WNDS GO OVR TO NE ANY CHC TSTMS ENDS AT THAT PT. AVN WANTS
TO MOV SHTWV ALONG FNT MON AFTN...BUT NEITHER THE NGM OR ETA SHOWG
THIS AMT OF ORGANIZATN BHD FNT. THINKG MOST OF PCPN IS N OF FNT. AND
IT DEPENDS HOW FAR S FNT GOES HOW MUCH QPF WE/LL ACTUALLY RCV. AL
MDLS BUT LAST NGTS MM5 SHOWG FNT GOING WELL S OF FA. OLD MM5 HANGS
IT UP N CNTL NJ KEEP INTERIOR SXNS...ESP NENGLND VRY WET IN TRAING
ECHOS. ON THE OTHER HAND LWRG HGTS ALF SHUD MOV FNT SWD AS PROGGD BY
ETA/NGM/AVN SUITE OF PRODUCTS. HERE/S OUR VISION FOR THE NEXT 4 PDS.
TNT WILL GET SOME SHWRS...SCT TSTMS AS FNT COMES THRU. WNDS BACK TO
NE AND WE GET ONSHR FLO...LO CLDS AND PDS OF DRZL/LGT RN THE SECOND
HALF OF TNT AND THE FIRST HALF OF MON. SECOND HALF OF MON LUKS LIKE
WE CUD GET ANOTHER BATCH OF SHWRS EMBEDDD IN THE OTW SCT LGT RN.
KEEP THE LO ST/DRZL/LGT RN MON NGT AND TUE. WL GO ALNG WITH LWR FWC
MAX TEMPS...SEEM REASONABLE WHEN ONE REMEMBERS WATER TEMPS 59 TO 63
ACRS AREA WATERS. ADDNTLY...PREFER THE FWC POPS WITH UPWD
MODIFICATION FOR MON. AVN SHOWG MUCH TOO MUCH ORGANIZATN BHD FNT FOR
SECOND PD. MAV MAX TEMPS TOO LO FOR LGA AND FAN MAX TEMPS TOO HI.
SPC HAS FA IN SLGT RISK DAY 1 ANY THREAT WUD BE LT TDY/ERLY
TNT...TIL SUNSET. ON THE MARINE...NO SIGNIFICANT PROBLMS. NO SCA OR
OTHER ADVSRY/WARNG WL BE ISSUED.

.OKX...SEVERE TSTM WATCH NYZ067>071-NJZ002>004-CTZ00b5>012 TIL 12/00Z.

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-120230-

WEATHER MAP DISCUSSION FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2000

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND ALL
OF CONNECTICUT UNTIL 8 PM...

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION WILL PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE VERY STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL IN THE WATCH AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR REGION IN THE PREDAWN HOURS AND THE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND COOLER OCEAN AIR WILL MOVE IN. LOW
CLOUDS AND MUCH LOWER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE PICTURE THROUGH
TUESDAY.