Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
256 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2000

SHORT TERM:  LOTS OF MESOSCALE FTRS TO CONTEND W/ THIS AFTN.  AM
MONIORING AREAS ALG/NW OF 2NDRY CONVERGENCE LN FM CNTRL LI BACK INTO
XTMR NRN NJ FOR PSBL FFA FOR AFTN PCKG AND ISOLD SVR ISSUANCE.  LCL
+RA AND SML HAIL IN STGR CELLS.  CELLS N/W OF INVERTED TROF SHWG SUM
NWD MOVMNT...OTHR CELLS NRLY STNRY.

88D SEEMS TO BE OVERESTIMATING RAFL A TAD (PSBL HAIL CONTAMINATION).
HWVR...FEEL FFA WARRANTED FOR LWR HUDSON VLY...NERN NJ AND NYC/WRN
SUFFOLK CO NY.  WL NOT ISSUE FOR ERN LI OR CT ZNS ATTM.

BASED ON ERLR SPOTTER RPT (JUST W OF EWR/1555Z)...GETTING PEA SIZE
HAIL OUT OF 40-ISH VIL/55-60 DBZ ARND 20K FT.  SVR CRIT BEING
CONSIDERED ATTM HERE IS 60+ DBZ ARND 20K/VIL ABT 45.  LATTER
PARAMETER BASED ON PARCEL FRZG LVL OF NR 20K FT BASED ON SFC LIFT
USING U70S TEMP/70 DEWPT.  DONT HV TIME TO GO INTO TECHNIQUE
DETAILS...BUT IT HAS SHWN POSITIVE RESULTS HERE AND SPCLY OTHR PTS
OF USA.

INVERTED TROF ESTABLISHING ITSELF FM DOWNEAST ME-NRN NJ AND PTS SW.
2NDRY CONVERGENCE LN MENTD ABV JUST ADDING XTRA LIFTING MECH.  XPCT
SUM OF ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF W/ LOSS OF DAYTIME HTG AND LTL H500 JET
STREAK MOVG NE AND PUTTING OUR RGN IN UNFAVORABLE LRQ.  WL KEEP SCT
SHRA/TS W/ LCL HVY RAINERS IN THRU MIDNIGHT AT LST.

LONGER TERM:  SAT IS A ? MARK...MAY END UP JUST CLDY AS OPPOSED TO
SHRWY.  WL KEEP SCT SHRA IN FCST FOR SAT AS INVERTED TROF AND
PLENTIFUL MSTR STL ARND.  OTRW...CLDY W/ TEMPS A TAD BLO GDNC NMBRS.

FEEL THAT AVN IS THE BETTER MDL BASED ON PMDHMD DISC OF SFC LO RMNG
CLSR TO UPR LO IN MID-ATLC.  THUS...W/ SFC RDG TRYING TO BUILD SWD A
BIT...THINK THAT PTCHY FG/DZ WL DO IT FOR SAT NITE.  SUN IS WHERE
THINGS GO DOWNHILL.  SFC LO MOVS A BIT FRTHR N AND BY AFTN SHUD BE
RAINING ACRS ENTIRE FA.  WL GO LKLY POP ALL ZNS FOR SUN AND WL KEEP
MENT TO AFTN FOR INT ZNS.  THIS APRS TO MATCH UP QUITE WELL W/ LTST
BOX WRKZFP (THX JD).

XTNDD:  DONT LIKE LOOK OF UPR PTTN TO GET UPR LO OUTTA HERE ANYTIME
TOO SOON...THO MRF KICKS SYS OUT MON.  WL RUN W/ MAN PROGS IDEA OF
EXITING SYS ON MON W/ ANTHR CDFNT TO APCH TUE AFTN W/ INTRO TO SCT
AFTN/EVNG SHRA/TS.

MARINE:  SCA MAY BE NEEDED LT SAT AND HDLN TO CONT.  ALSO...W/ APCH
OF FULL MOON ERLY NXT WK (TUE)...WL HV TO WATCH FOR INCRG TIDES AND
PTNTL FOR CSTL FLDG.  WL NOT ISSUE ANYTHING ALG THOSE LNS ATTM...BUT
BEARS WATCHING.

PCKG WL BE LT THIS AFTN...HOPE TO HV ALL OUT BY 1930Z.

.OKX...FFA FOR NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>078-080 TIL 12/0400Z.

SDR

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-112100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 AM EDT WED AUG 9 2000

...SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...

A WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AT ANY TIME THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
NEW YORK METROPOLITAN AREA.

FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MEAN THAT
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  HOWEVE'R...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS TO BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS AND WARM AIRMASS IN
PLACE.