Severe Thunderstorm Warning 306, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
145 PM CDT MON SEP 4 2000

NEITHER THE AVN, ETA NOR NGM HAVE DONE A GOOD JOB COMING UP WITH
A PRECIP SOLUTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT PICKS UP ON THE SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS THAT ARE PRESENTLY OVER S-CENTRAL KY. BASED ON MSAS ANALYSES,
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG A MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY/PRE-FRONTAL TROF AND IN AN AREA OF LIS BTWN -5 AND -8.
MODELS ARE AGREEABLE IN BRININGING THE MEAN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
SWD THROUGH NRN MIDDLE TN THIS EVENING. THUS, WILL PROBABLY KEEP AT
LEAST A SMALL POP RUNNING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH. MAY
ALSO GO WITH A TOKEN 20% CHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SRN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT, AS THIS CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKS SWD.

AT 17Z, THE SFC CDFNT (AS REPRESENTED BY TIGHTEST THERMAL GRADIENT)
EXTENDED FROM NEAR DAYTON, OHIO TO NRN MISSOURI. ALONG AND BEHIND THIS
FRONT, STLT PICS SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF MOCLDY CONDITIONS, SIMILAR TO WHAT
YOU WOULD SEE DURING AN AUTUMN OR WINTER OUTBREAK OF COOL AIR.
INDEED, NGM AND AVN ARE BOTH AGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING THE 1000-850MB
LAYER TONIGHT OVER NRN MIDDLE TN, AS THE COOL AIR SPREADS IN FROM
THE NORTH. CONVERSELY, AVN AND NGM MOS DONT INDICATE MUCH CHC FOR
CLOUDS IN OUR FA OVERNIGHT. THUS, WILL PROBABLY GO WITH A COMPROMISE
IDEA AND LEAVE THE ZFP FCST OF PTCLDY INTACT (AND EXPECT MOST STRATOCU
TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET).

ON TUESDAY, AM MORE CONVINCED THAT ABUNDANT LOW LVL MOISTURE WILL
TRANSLATE INTO A THICK SC FIELD ONCE THE SUN HITS IT. THUS, BLV A
BKN DECK WILL PROBABLY EXIST OVER THE MID-STATE FOR MUCH OF TUE
AND HELP TO KEEP TEMPS QUITE A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE OF THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT IN SERN MIDDLE TN LATE
TONIGHT AND ALLUDES TO THE PSBLTY THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL
CHC FOR TSTMS IN OUR SERN AREAS EVEN INTO TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE TO PREVENT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IN THE MID-STATE 2ND THRU
4TH PD.

TEMP-WISE, NGM HAS NOW ADJUSTED TUE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO THOSE PROJECTED
BY YESTERDAYS FAN. HOWEVER, THE FAN HAS NOW TAKEN ANOTHER NOSE-DIVE
AND IS NOW GOING FOR A HIGH OF ONLY 73 TOMORROW AT BNA RIGHT NOW,
BLV NGM PROJECTIONS LOOK MORE REASONABLE.

WEDNESDAYS WEATHER OUGHT TO HELP PRODUCE A LITTLE AUTUMN FEVER IN
THE MID-STATE, AS THE DAY STARTS OUT AT BNA WITH TEMPS NEAR 60 AND
ENDS UP WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S (CAN WE SAY, PLEA-SANT?)

BNA EB 067/081/060/078/ 058 192--
CSV EB 064/075/057/072/ 056 1921-

.BNA...NONE.

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