Tornado Warning 19, NWS Omaha, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
345 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

RATHER BUSY SHIFT EARLY THIS MRNG WITH CONVECTION IN THE CWFA.
ACTIVE WEATHER DAY LIKELY TO CONTINUE. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
CONVECTION IN AREA AGAIN LATER IN THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING AS
STRONG UPPER TROF MOVES INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERACTS WITH
UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE.

SOME LINGERING CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE THRU MRNG HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY DECREASE SOME WITH TIME. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
THEN LIKELY TO FIRE THIS AFTENROON AS CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
CDFNT INTERACTS WITH UNSTABLE...MOIST AND LARGELY UNCAPPED AIR MASS.
PER SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK GOOD RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. WILL MAINLY USE
ETA FOR TIMING OF CDFNT. THIS WUD PLACE MAIN POTENTIAL FOR MOST
WIDESPREAD AND STRONG STORMS INTO SW IA AND SE NEB BY EVENING HOURS.
MAX TEMPS TODAY GENLY HOLDING IN 80S NW OF FNT IN AFTN EXTRM NW PTN
CWFA BUT REACHING INTO LOWER 90S AHEAD OF FNT.

WINDY AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS SPREADING INTO REGION FOLLOWING
FNT. SOME WRAP ARND SHWRS PSBL BEHIND FNT WITH UPPER TROF TNGT.
INSTABILITY SHWRS ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED WITH AFTN HEATING.
HOWEVER FEEL POPS FOR MEASURABLE SMALL. COULD BE QUITE WINDY DURING
DAY WED WITH CAA AND COUPLING TO MID LEVEL FLOW ALLOWING FOR GOOD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. MAX TEMPS LIKELY HOLDING IN 70S EXCEPT ARND 80
SW AREA OF FCST REGION.

.OMA...NONE
WIESE

IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-140300-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1115 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.

VERY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIR IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA.  A COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL ALSO MOVE
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY EVENING.  WHEN
COMBINED WITH SEVERAL STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...THE AREA WITH
THE GREATEST RISK IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM LINCOLN
NEBRASKA TO ONAWA IOWA.  THE TIME OF THE MAIN THREAT FOR EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA IS FROM 2 OR 3 PM UNTIL 11 PM OR SO
...EVEN THOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
EAST OF THE REGION.  BY MID TO LATE EVENING THE STRONGEST STORMS
SHOULD HAVE SHIFTED INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND LOCATIONS SOUTHEAST.

BASED ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH FORCING AND EXPECTED
WIND FIELDS...THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  A FEW TORNADOES CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT.

PEOPLE ARE URGED TO BE ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS. BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AkND
WARNINGS.

CHERMOK