Severe Thunderstorm Warning 213, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
249 PM CDT SAT JUL 22 2000

A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH MONDAY
RESULTING IN A MORE AMPLIFIED H5 TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
US.  THIS WILL BRING THE LONG AWAITED BREAK FROM THE HEAT WAVE
FINALLY TO THE FORECAST AREA.  THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM
YESTERDAY LEFT GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL
AS SEVERAL WEAK BOUNDARIES.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK
DEW POINT BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WITH LATEST RUC DATA AND WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATING A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALONG
THE INTERSECTION OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE AXIS OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...AND THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING AS IT CONTINUES MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST.  THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE DYING MCC OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.  WILL
THEREFORE INCLUDE A MENTION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE...DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DOES NOT LOOK AS STRONG ON SUNDAY AND DEEP
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BRING IN DRIER AIR.  HOWEVER...WITH THE
WEAK BOUNDARY STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH ADDITIONAL BOUNDARIES
TO BE LEFT OVER FROM CURRENT CONVECTION WILL GO WITH GOOD CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS.  A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AS AN H5 TROF DEVELOPS OVER MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA...
BUT THIS WILL BE TEMPERED BY FURTHER DRYING.  WHAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE EASTERN AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF BASIC AFTERNOON...
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK OVER THE AREA SUGGESTING MORE SEA BREEZE TYPE CONVECTION.
HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

FOR FIRE WEATHER...KBDI IS ABOVE 600 OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT WITH MORE NORMAL DAYTIME HIGHS...THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...AS WELL
AS OTHER FACTORS.  THUS...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS WILL BE NECESSARY
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR THE MARINE AREA...LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE
AS A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS JUST INLAND.  SCATTERED
NOCTURNAL AND LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
MOB BB 072/094 069/091 068 29263
PNS BB 075/096 072/091 070 29263
DTS BB 074/090 073/088 073 29263
GZH BB 072/093 068/092 066 29152
2R0 BB 069/092 065/090 065 29242
61A BB 069/092 065/090 065 29242

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.