Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
244 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

CORRECTED TO MENTION THAT CODED FORECASTS BELOW ARE PRELIM...

ACTIVE AND BUSY AFTERNOON TO SAY THE LEAST.  LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS SUPPORTING SHORT TERM FORECAST OF HIGH POPS INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS ACTIVE SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST WILL
DECAY SLOWLY AFTER DARK. UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF
AR...CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS TO SOON INITIATE OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES...SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE FROM NEAR
JAN TO NORTH OF MGM. CLOUD TOPS ARE ARCING UP TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST...RESPONDING TO THE APPROACH OF THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WILL MAINTAIN SEVERE IN ONGOING ZONES FOR THE EVENING HOURS.  FOR THE
LONG TERM...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD AS HIGHER HEIGHTS REMAIN
OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL RESULT...IN TEMPERATURES NOT AS
HOT AS SEEN THE PAST WEEK. SO WILL LEAN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY ON
TEMPERATURES RIGHT ON INTO THE EXTENDED RANGE. THIS REGIME ALSO
SUPPORTS THE PASSAGE OF MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES...WHEN MOVING OVER A
SERIES OF SURFACE TROFS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH...SPELLS THUNDERSTORMS.
BEST COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOONS WHEN HIGHEST INSTABILITY
PRESENT.

NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF OVER THE MARINE AREA.  OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...EXPECT WINDS W/SW BECOMING MORE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS A TROF MOVES OFF THE MAINLAND.

PRELIM...
MOB TT 075/096 072/092 072 10665
PNS TT 078/096 074/092 072 10565
DTS TT 077/093 075/090 075 10465
GZH TT 072/093 071/089 068 10464
2R0 TT 072/092 071/089 068 10565
61A TT 071/093 070/089 068 10565p

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ALZ039-051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...
...STRESSFUL HEAT CONTINUES TODAY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.  A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAPED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FROM JACKSON MS EAST TO MACON GA.  AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND A COASTAL SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SW AL...SPREADING SOUTHEAST AROUND 30
MPH INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF AL AND NORTHWEST FL INTO THE
EVENING.

THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE OVER THE GULF COAST AND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH TIME.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN
NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS.  DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SEVERE STORM
SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ON ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.  DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...WEAR LIGHT COLORED
CLOTHING AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN OUTDOORS TO AVOID HEAT
RELATED STRESS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE, AL
145 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0120 PM    8 E LOXLEY                AL   1.00 INCH HAIL
07/21/00   BALDWIN                        HAIL COVERED INTERSTATE
                                          65. A FEW TREE LIMBS WERE
                                          ALSO BLOWN DOyWN.

JFG