Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1019 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

...CORRECTED TO MENTION HEAT ADVISORIES OVER THE COAST IN
WATCH/WARNING SECTION BELOW...

LOTS TO TALK ABOUT. LARGE SCALE SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
PATTERN SETTING UP OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING SE OUT OF ARKANSAS...FORECAST TO APPROACH
CENTRAL MS THIS EVENING. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE PARKED OVER THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S. FROM
ILM...MCN...JAN.  THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WITH COASTAL CAPES ABOVE 5000 J/KG AND LIS  -10 AS PER 12Z
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLOOKED ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA UNDER SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE AS DAYTIME HEATING...
ADVECTION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING...INTERACTS WITH COASTAL
SEABREEZE AND SURFACE FRONT NEAR BY.  EXPECT DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS STORMS PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
30 MPH. WILL FRESHEN UP ZONES...WORDING HIGHEST 1ST PERIOD POPS...
SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE IN THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EVENING.  NOTE: ALTHO LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE
STORMS TO WEAKEN INTO THE EVENING...SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL
LIKELY CAUSE THE WEAKENING PROCESS TO BE A BIT SLOWER. 10

.MOB...
AL...HEAT ADVSY TODAY ALZ063-064. FIRE WX WATCH ALZ039-051>060 THRU
7PM.
FL...HEAT ADVSY TODAY FLZ001>006. FIRE WX WATCH FL001>006-008 THRU
7PM.
MS...NONE.

ALZ039-051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-221230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 AM CDT FRI JUL 21 2000

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...
...STRESSFUL HEAT CONTINUES TODAY OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF ARKANSAS INTO
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT.  A STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE WAS DRAPED
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. FROM JACKSON MS EAST TO MACON GA.  AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT AND A COASTAL SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE COURSE OF THE DAY.  NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SW AL...SPREADING SOUTHEAST AROUND 30
MPH INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF AL AND NORTHWEST FL INTO THE
EVENING.

THE AIRMASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE OVER THE GULF COAST AND WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST WITH TIME.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN
NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE REGION UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS.  DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SEVERE STORM
SPOTTERS SHOULD REMAIN ON ALERT FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 105 TO
110 DEGREE RANGE TODAY.  DRINK PLENTY OF WATER...WEAR LIGHT COLORED
CLOTHING AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN OUTDOORS TO AVOID HEAT
RELATED STRESS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MOB