Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
150 PM EDT SAT APR 15 2000

CURRENT/TONIGHT...CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPING. ALTHOUGH LOCAL AIR
MASS IS NOT OVERLY CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE WX...IT SHOULD BE AN
INTERESTING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD
THE COAST WHERE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS TAKE PLACE. STORMS
SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL KEEP
FAIRLY HEALTHY EVENING POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST...SINCE THE 88D
SCREEN ID FILLING UP RATHER QUICKLY. WILL SEE BY ISSUANCE TIME IF A
SMALL POP IS NEEDED FOR THE INTERIOR...BUT I SUSPECT NOT. WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAINING ABOVE 60F AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO NIL
...CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM OVERNIGHT.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...WEAK BUBBLE TYPE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE PANHANDLE/
GOMEX BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AS THE ATLC SURFACE RIDGE AXIS STAYS
BETWEEN 26N AND 27N EAST OF OKE-PBI. DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERS THROUGH
18Z OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF THE
WEAK NORTH FLORIDA TROUGH/DEW POINT FRONT...WHICH ONLY SLOWLY OOZES
SOUTH. RESIDUAL TROUGHINESS AT H50 WILL KEEP TEMPS ALOFT BLO -12C.
CURRENT FORECAST TREND OF 20/30/40 NORTH TO SOUTH LOOKS RIGHT ON
TARGET. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE FOR EVENING POPS OVER SOUTHERN
COUNTIES. EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE MAY BE LOWER THAN TODAY...THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS WILL BE A TAD HIGHER GIVEN DEEP LAYER DRYING WORKING
ITSELF A LITTLE FARTHER DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. PATCHY DENSE FOG
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVERHEAD AND DEW POINTS STILL IN THE LOWER 60S. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
WILL MAKE THINGS A BIT COOLER ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...PWATS DROP TO LESS THAN AN INCH...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A DRY
DAY. LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TEND TO BE DISPLACED SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM DROPPING SSE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WARM DAY
AS LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW TRENDS TOWARD W-SW BY AFTERNOON.

TUE-THU...H50 LOW CENTER DROPS THROUGH THE CAROLINAS/GA AND JUST
OFFSHORE FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE CHS-SAV. THIS PUSHES AN ATTENDANT COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. FRONT WILL BE RATHER MOISTURE STARVED AND TIMING
IS LESS THAN IDEAL (BEST UVM AROUND 12Z WITH EARLY FROPA) WILL STILL
KEEP IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS....WITH FORECAST DRY BEYOND.

MARINE...NIL HIGHLIGHTS. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW AND WHERE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW OCCURS TUESDAY AND HOW IT EFFECT WINDS OVER
THE NORTH LEG. THANKS FOR COORD JAX.

PRELIMINARY CCF...
DAB BB 061/083 060/086 061 6022-0
MCO BB 063/086 062/087 063 6012-0
MLB BB 063/084 062/086 063 603310

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...CRISTALDI
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BRAGAW

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-152000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1150 AM EDT SAT APR 15 2000

...A FEW STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE NORTH OF TAMPA...
AND ALSO WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER...WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH
INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THEY DO...THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS
WILL FORM. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER THE
EAST COASTAL COUNTIES.

A FEW STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS MAY DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STORMS TO OCCUR WILL BE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...WHERE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE IS THE GREATEST...AND ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WHERE
THE COASTAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY COLLIDE.

MOVE INDOORS TO A SAFE LOCATION AWAY FROM WINDOWS IF LIGHTNING STORMS
DEVELOP NEAR OR APPROACH YOUR LOCATION. SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE
REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON NEAR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERWAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT
2O KNOTS INTO THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OVER 35
KNOTS AND SMALL HAIL.

CRISTALDI