Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000

OLD QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LIES OVER EXTREME
NORTH FLORIDA. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
COASTAL CONVERGENCE LEADING TO DEVELOPMENT OF TSRA CLUSTERS
ALONG/OFFSHORE GULF COAST IN VICINITY OF CDRF1. RADAR INDICATES
ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS NORTHERNMOST CWA.
SOUNDINGS AND ATLANTIC BUOYS SHOW BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REMAINS
WESTERLY WITH NO INDICATION OF EXPECTED WEAKENING TREND YET.
HOWEVER...GRADIENT STILL LIKELY TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS FAST AS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
RIBBON OF DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS NEAR LATITUDE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...MOISTURE SUFFICIENT FOR DEEP CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH
WHERE EASTWARD PROPAGATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE A TRIGGER
FOR INITIATION.

WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND MAY NEED TO BUMP UP
POPS A LITTLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES. 10-15 KT
OFFSHORE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAKES ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
LESS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NORTH/CENTRAL COAST. THUS...PRECIP COVERAGE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNIFORM INTERIOR/COASTAL. LAKE OKEE BREEZE
CONVERGENCE SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED LATE DAY STORMS.

MARINE...WILL BUMP UP WINDS OVER NORTHERN LEG INITIALLY...WITH
DOWNWARD TREND FOR LATE IN THE DAY/OVERNIGHT. WILL ALSO LIMIT SEA
BREEZE FORMATION TO NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF VRB WHERE LIGHTER
GRADIENT MAY ALLOW MID-LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT.

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...SPRATT
AVIATION/FIRE WX...PENDERGRAST

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-142000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1108 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000

...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY. MORNING
WEATHER BALLOON OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LEVELS FOR SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. LIGHTNING STORMS WILL FIRST SPREAD ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF A CLERMONT TO ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL LINE THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS
OSCEOLA...OKEECHOBEE...BREVARD...AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON...STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE
VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE GREATEST THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING....AND BRIEF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
STORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST AT 20 MPH AGAIN TODAY...SO REMEMBER
TO MOVE INSIDE AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A DARKENING WESTERN SKY AS STORMS
WILL APPROACH QUICKLY.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE COASTAL PLAIN...THEN ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL AND NEARSHORE
WATERS...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MID DAY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE
STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT
CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING.

STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A STRONG STORM DEVELOPS
OR IF A WEATHER WARNING IS ISSUED.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

SPRATT