Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED WORD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
230 PM EDT TUE JULY 25 2000

CURRENTLY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS SE FL AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE THAT THE RUC
MODEL HAD A PRETTY DECENT HANDLE ON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLIDE N TWD SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
STORMS FIRING IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE WEST CENTRAL
PENINSULA. THESE STORMS SHOULD TRACK INTO SECTIONS OF THE WRN CWA
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING.

MODELS/ZFP: MODELS FOREAST 589-590 RIDGE CENTER TO DRIFT W FROM THE
BAHAMAS WED MORNING TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE THU MORNING AND
INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRI. SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL ALSO LIFT
NORTH FROM S FL TO N FL THROUGH THU. MODEL TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS IN
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING SOME DRYING TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
(700-300 MBS) WED INTO THU...THOUGH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS FROM SFC TO 700 MBS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NGM TRIES
BRINGING DRYING DOWN TO 850 BY FRI MORNING...SO A DECREASING POP
TREND THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST IS IN ORDER AS E
CENTRAL FL BEGINS TO COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW BY THU AND FRI WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SOME SUBSIDENCE AND
DRYING ALOFT. WILL GO WITH 50-60 POPS MOST ZONES WED AND DROP IT
BACK TO 40-50 ON THU...WITH LOWER POPS CSTL COUNTIES ON THU. WILL
KEEP CHC POPS FOR MAINLY EVENING ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND WED NGT. TEMPS
WILL STAY CLOSE TO MOS.

MARINE: SE TO S FLOW WILL BECOME E TO SE THROUGH THU. SPEEDS
GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS IN THE 2-3 FOOT RANGE.

EXTENDED: FRI-SUN...SFC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO EXTEND ACROSS
CENTRAL AND N FL...WILL STILL CARRY CHC OF SHOWERS OR TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING.

PRELIM...
DAB TT 072/089 072/089 074 15353
MCO TT 072/091 073/092 073 15363
MLB TT 074/089 075/089 074 15353=

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...VOLKMER/GLITTO
AVIATION/FIRE WX...WIMMER

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-251900-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1205 PM EDT TUE JUL 25 2000

...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STRONG...

THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LATER
THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND FOCUS
ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTH
NORTHWEST INTO MARTIN AND ST LUCIE COUNTIES.  BY LATE AFTERNOON...
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH FROM
METRO ORLANDO TO THE COAST...AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INTO
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...AND LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
STORMS. WHILE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS
CAN BE EXPECTED...THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SAFETY THREAT WILL BE CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  REMEMBER TO SEEK SHELTER IF YOU SEE A STORM
DEVELOPING OR APPROACHING.  LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MANY MILES AWAY
FROM ITS PARENT STORM...EVEN BEYOND THE AUDIBLE RANGE OF THUNDER.

LIGHTNING STORMS WILL AFFECT BOATERS SOUTH OF VERO BEACH INTO
MID AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE
WATERS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL AFFECT
THE WATERS FROM VERO BEACH TO CAPE CANAVERAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS...FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SKYWARN SPOTTERS SHOULD SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING IS ISSUED FOR
YOUR AREA.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

VOLKMER/GLITTO