Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
310 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2000

CURRENTLY...WDLY SCT RW AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET.  15Z SOUNDING FROM KXMR SHOWED A MARKED DECREASE IN
PW VALUES...AND 10-15KT WRLY WIND IN THE SFC-H70 LAYER. RW/TRW
CONFINED TO THE SRN CWA DUE TO THE DRY AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE
NORTH.

SHORT TERM...MODELS ARE IN LINE WITH THE SFC-H70 SHORT WAVE SLOWLY
MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC TONIGHT. DEPARTING TROF WILL BE QUICKLY
REPLACED BY A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDWEST.  THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPRESS THE SUBTROPICAL ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN FL
STRAITS.  ALL THREE MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
WEAKENING OF THE SFC-H70 FLOW THROUGH 12Z WED AS THE SHORTWAVE
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND A LARGE COL MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
THE TROF WILL DRAG A BAND OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WED
NIGHT/THU AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST.  INCREASED MOISTURE AND
ECSB FORMATION WILL PRODUCE A MORE PRECIP FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT
WED AND THU.  HOWEVER...VERY WEAK LAPSE RATES IN THE H85-H50 LAYER
WITH H50 TEMPS IN THE -5 TO -6 C RANGE THROUGH H48 NOT CONDUSIVE TO
SVR RW/TRW.  SCT POPS THE BEST BET...WITH TEMPS AOA CLIMO.

EXTENDED...SECOND TROF WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF
STATES CLOSE TO THE FL/GA BORDER...WHERE IT WILL STALL ON SAT.
ACCOMPANING MOISTURE AND PROXMITY OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER DIURNAL PRECIP OVER CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE IN CURRENT FORECAST TREND.  NO ATLC STORMS TO
PRODUCE ANY SWELL...AND EITHER WEAK WINDS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TRYING
TO DRIFT NORTH...OR STEADY WESTERLIES AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROF
DRIFTS INTO NRN FL.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
DAB BB 073/093 074/094 075 132
MCO BB 075/095 075/095 076 142
MLB BB 075/094 076/093 075 132   81

.MLB...NONE.

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAGAW
AVIATION/FIRE WX...LASCODY

FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-181900-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1122 AM EDT TUE JUL 18 2000

...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON...

THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALLOW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE
INTERIOR COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON AND PUSH EAST INTO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES BEFORE SUNSET.  THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP CLOSE TO
THE NEARSHORE AND INTRACOASTAL AREAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.  MARINERS
SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR DEVELOPING STORMS THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST.  WIND GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER
LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MIDDLE 90S...
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE.  HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL APPROACH 105 DEGREES.

SELF ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS IS REQUESTED IF ANY
WEATHER WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

THE GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS AVAILABLE
AT: HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB/HWOFILES/HWOMAIN.HTML

BRAGAW