Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT SUN MAY 14 2000

CURRENTLY...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE FIRING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. LOCAL OBSERVATION SHOWS DEVELOPED CU ON
VERGE OF PRODUCING PRECIPITATION INVOF FORECAST OFFICE. SPC
OUTLOOKED SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND SMALL HAIL UP TO COIN SIZE POSSIBLE IN A
FEW SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ONLY BE DRIFTING TO THE EAST AT
LESS THAN 10 MPH...SO AFFECTED AREAS CAN GET A GOOD DRENCHING INTO
THE EVENING.

TONIGHT...WILL HOLD SCATTERED TO WIDELY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO THE EVENING FORECAST AS WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH
NORTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS
DUE TO INFLUENCE OF WEST COAST BREEZE WILL AFFECT INTERIOR AREAS
WITH OTHER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH EAST COAST BREEZE OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AND THE ADJACENT WATERS.

MONDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCE IN SOUTHWARD DRIFT OF
THE FRONT. EACH MODEL SHOWS A SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG THE FRONT
...BUT VARY IN STRENGTH. OVERALL MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN WITH
FAVORABLE FRONTAL RELATED CONVERGENCE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
SOUTHWARD. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO REGION...DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH TIME OVER THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA.

TUE-THU...SURFACE HIGH OVER MID-ATLC MOVES SOUTH AND RIDGE BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED TO FL PEN. ALSO...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
PENINSULA WITH H50 RIDGE BUILDING EAST ACROSS FL FROM THE GOMEX
...WHICH WILL KEEP REGIME DRY OVERALL.

MARINE...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER NORTH LEG ON MON
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS GRADIENT OVER NE WATERS. WILL
REFLECT THIS IN FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...DUE TO PREVAILING DRY CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE AN
INCREASED THREAT OF LIGHTNING INDUCED BRUSH FIRES IN THE VICINITY OF
STORMS. OVERALL MILDER TEMPERATURES AND ONSHORE FLOW OVER MOST OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS EARLY
THIS WEEK.

PRELIM...
DAB BB 068/082 065/083 066 32--
MCO BB 068/085 065/087 067 2200
MLB BB 070/083 068/085 068 331- 44

.MLB...NONE

PUBLIC/MARINE...PENDERGRAST
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...BLOTTMAN

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-142100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1147 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2000

...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA INITIALLY IN AREAS WHERE SEA AND LAKE BREEZES
COLLIDE. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS COLLIDE. A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM VOLUSIA
SOUTHWARD IN THE VICINITY OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WIND GUSTS
OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEAK STEERING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL MOVE STORMS SLOWLY
EASTWARD...WITH SOME STORMS MOVING OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF WATERSPOUT OR WEAK TORNADO MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGER STORMS.

THOSE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND
HEAD INDOORS TO SAFETY AT THE FIRST SIGN OF DARKENING SKIES OR
THREATENING WEATHER. LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED
KILLER IN CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORKS ARE REQUESTED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF A WARNING
IS ISSUED FOR THEIR AREA.

A GRAPHICAL PRESENTATION OF THE NWS MLB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MLB

PENDERGRAST