Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT SUN APR 2 2000

GOOD NEWS...THE SUN IS FINALLY COMING OUT SLOWLY FROM NW-SE ACROSS
THE WARNING AND FORECAST AREAS...AFTER A COLD AND WET SATURDAY. BAD
NEWS...ANOTHER COLD AND LIKELY FREEZING EVENT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...TUESDAY MORNING. MORNING ANALYSIS
SHOWED A DEEP MEAN TROUGH THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM THE DESERT
SW...WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER SE AZ. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR VIEW SHOWS
IT DROPPING SE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...WITH A VORT LOBE EXTENDING TO
THE NE FROM IT. RATHER COOL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM (-25C)
AT 500 MB WAS MOVING OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER STRONG
COLD FRONT CONTINUES PLOWING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE COLORADO FRONT
RANGE....AND ASSOCIATED HIGH PLAINS. AS OF 19Z...IT WAS NOTED FROM
SOUTH OF PUB...TO LAA..TO HLC ...A BIT AHEAD OF 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE.

FOR THE SHORT TERM...WILL KEEP IN PLACE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION. THINK MOST OF THEM WILL BE OF THE ELEVATED VARIETY. SOME
CU AND TCU WAS NOTED FORMING OVER THE BIG BEND AND CULBERSON COUNTY.
THINK ANY PRECIP THAT FORMS SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT...THUS WILL WORD
EVENING SHOWERS. WILL KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES.

A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AS THE
ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT MAKES TO THESE PARTS. AS IS USUALLY THE
CASE DURING THE NIGHT...THESE BOUNDARIES HAVE A TENDENCY TO
ACCELERATE...THUS WILL MOVE UP TIMING OF THE FROPA A FEW HOURS. THIS
FRONT SHOULD COME IN ALMOST FROM DUE NORTH...AND EAST OF THE NM MTNS.
CURRANT THINKING IS BETWEEN 4AM AND 6AM LOCALLY. THUS AFTER ITS
PASSAGE A RETURN TO FALL WITH HIGHS UNDER SUNNY SKIES STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60 THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS.
WINDS THROUGH THE GDP WILL BE NEARING...BUT PROBABLY NOT REACH
WARNING CRITERIA.

THE BIG WORRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING IS THE RETURN OF
FREEZING TEMPS. ALL MODEL NUMBERS SUGGEST TEMPS AT LEAST TO FREEZING
FAR SOUTH AS THE PECOS RIVER TUESDAY MORNING. THE LONGEST FREEZE
DURATION WISE WILL BE OVER THE NM PLAINS AND NW PERMIAN BASIN...WITH
A LIGHTER FREEZE ELSEWHERE. WE WILL PUT OUT ANOTHER SPS TO WARN OUR
CUSTOMERS OF THIS RISK.

GOOD NEWS AFTER THIS IS A GOOD WARMUP FOR MID WEEK. THE MRF I THINK
IS GOING OVERBOARD...WITH HIGH TEMPS NEAR 90 WEDNESDAY. WILL TRIM
THEM BACK A CAT OR SO; AS TEMPS HERE NORMALLY DON'T RECOVER LIKE THEY
CAN FALL. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED. MODEL
CONFLICTS HARD TO RESOLVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND...BUT SHOULD BE A COOLER
AND POSSIBLY WETTER TREND THEN.

MAF  39/56/29/73    1000
LSA  37/55/29/72    1000
E41  42/60/32/75    1000
6R6  45/63/38/73    1000
MRF  32/53/26/68    1000
CNM  39/54/30/73    1000

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

BOYDy