Severe Thunderstorm Warning 344, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR HEAT ADV DISC LAST PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT SUN AUG 6 2000

REGION WL RMN ON S PERIPHERY OF WESTERLIES DURG THE NXT FEW DAYS.
WITH UNSEASONABLY STG DYNAMICS AND TYPICAL UNSTBL SUMMERTIME
AMS...TSTM THRT RMNS A PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FCST CYCLE.

2 BATCHES OF PCPN ONGOING ATTM.  THE FIRST AREA OF ELEVATED CNVTN
RUFLY ALG-N OF I-70 IS ASSOC WITH WSW 85H JET OF 40-50 KTS...WITH
ADDL LFT OF WRMFNT PRODUCING BEST CVG OVR IL PTN OF CWFA.
MEANWHILE...COMBO OF SFC CNVGC AND SHTWV ENERGY APRS TO BE AIDING
THE DVLPMT OF STG STMS FROM KC AREA WSW INTO KS.

IT LKS LIKE THE ABV FTRS WL BE CONTG THE PCPN THRT OVR MOST OF CWFA
TDA AND TNGT.  WULD THINK THE MAIN CONCERN FOR INTS/SVR TSTMS WL BE
ASSOC ALG SFC BNDRY THAT IS PROGGED TO BCM QSNTRY OVR N MO TDA AND
TNGT.  MDLS SEEM IN AGREEMENT THAT ABV MENTIONED SHTWV WL BRUSH N MO
THIS MRNG...WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF SHTWV ENERGY PROGGED INTO AREA LT
THIS AFTN AND TNGT.  MSAS DATA STILL INDICATING LIS OF -4 TO -7 ACR
N MO INTO KS AT THIS ERY HR...SO WULD THINK THAT AN XTRM AMT OF
INSTABILITY WL BE IN PLACE BY LT AFTN.  ETA LIS FCST OF -10 TO -12
AND CAPES OF AOA 3000 J/KG CERTAINLY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THIS AREA.

SLGTLY FURTHER S...PROGS INDICATE PERSISTENT WAA FROM E CNTRL MO
INTO IN THRU TNGT...WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR LVL PRODUCING ADDL
LFT NEEDED TO KP A SCTD TSTM THRT ALG-N OF I-70...AND SPCLY FROM
STL INTO IL SECTION OF CWFA.

ON MON...FNT IS FCST TO BGN LFTG NWD ONCE AGAIN.  BEST POPS SHUD RMN
VCNTY OF FNTL CNVGC OVR NE MO...WITH WKNG WAA STILL KPG A LO POP IN
THE I-70 CORRIDOR.

DURG ENTIRE PD...FAR S SECTIONS OF CWFA APR TO HV LEAST CHC OF PCPN
DUE TO LACK OF LFTG MECHANISMS.  WL NEED TO KP AN EYE OUT FOR SM
ELEVATED PCPN...BUT IF CURRENT 88D TRENDS CONT WL KP THIS AREA DRY
THRU MON.  NOT SURE WHY MDLS ARE TENDING TO BRK OUT PCPN IN THIS
VCNTY ON MON WITH ALL PARAMETERS GRDLY RETREATING NWD.

OTHER CONCERN IS TEMPS AND HEAT INDICIES.  UNSEASONABLY STG 85H FLOW
IS DRIVING NOSE OF WRMST AIR THRU CNTRL PART OF MO ALG I-70...WHERE
SFC DWPTS ARE ALSO FCST TO POOL INTO THE M70S.  LM90S WITH THESE
DWPTS WL CERTAINLY MAKE FOR A STEAMY DAY WITH HI IN THE 100 TO 105
RANGE.  THIS MAY PLACE STL METRO CLOSE TO ADVSRY CRITERIA...BUT WITH
SCTD PCPN ACR AREA THIS MRNG...CLDS...AND STG SW WNDS...THERES ENCUF
UNCERTAINTY THAT IVE OPTED TO LV OUT HEADLINE ATTM.

.STL...NONE
TRUETT