Severe Thunderstorm Warning 222, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
350 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2000

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING GOOD CHANCE OF TSRA TODAY WITH
ETA/AVN LI OF -4 TO -6 BY MIDDAY UNDER RIGHT REAR OF 80-100KT 300MB
JET ON EAST SIDE OF SHARP TROF.  BOTH HAVE BEST UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER NRN AND WRN ZONES AT 18Z.  THIS SHOULD INITIALLY SEEM TO MOVE
EAST WITH JET AXIS...BUT ETA AND AVN LAYER CONV-Q FIELDS APPEAR TO
SUGGEST A DIFFERENT REGION OF BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT.  LAYER CONV-Q
FIELDS FROM BOTH MODELS POINT TOWARD A SPLIT IN THE MAX PRECIP AREA
TODAY...WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED NORTHEAST INTO IL/WI AND TSRA ACTIVITY
STAYING MOSTLY OVER SW MO INTO NRN TX.  SFC WIND AND MSLP PROGS ALSO
SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO AS THE SFC TROF IS NEVER VERY WELL
DEFINED OVER MO AND SW IL TODAY.  EVEN THOUGH FOCUS OF MAX PRECIP
TOTALS MAY BE ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER MOST OF CWFA SO WL STAY WITH LIKELY POPS.

PRECIP SHOULD QUICKLY COME TO AN END BY EVENING LEAVING COOLER TEMPS
AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WHICH SHOULD ALSO HANG AROUND FOR A DAY OR SO
UNTIL RETURN TO SLY FLOW HELPS DEWPOINTS PUSH BACK INTO THE 60S ON
FRIDAY.  POPS ALSO INCREASE ON FRI/SAT AS THE NEXT FRONT/UPPER TROF
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.  WOULD LIKE TO PULL POPS FROM SUNDAY SINCE
MRF/UKMET/ECMWF ALL PLACE A BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MIDWEST.  WILL AVOID DAY 5 CHANGES FOR NOW HOWEVER.

.STL...NONE.

LENNING

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036
-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-141530-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
745 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS SECTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSOURI...AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  THE
PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN IS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
RUNNING FROM BOONE COUNTY IN MISSOURI TO ADAMS COUNTY IN ILLINOIS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN ST LOUIS.  AREAS INCLUDED ARE PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

LENNING

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036
-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-151200-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1130 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2000

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AND A SMALL PART OF EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.  THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WEST
PLAINS TO ST CHARLES MISSOURI TO SPRINGFIELD ILLINOIS.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD STAY INFORMED OF
WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SKYWARN
ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY.

THIS OUTLOOK COVERS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE IN ST LOUIS.  AREAS INCLUDED ARE PORTIONS OF EASTERN
AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

GKS