Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
300 AM CST SUN MAR 26 2000

BROAD SFC HI PRES RDG CNTRD OVR SE MO/SW IL RESULTING SOME
INTERESTING TMPS EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS RDG WL SHIFT QUICKLY EWD
TDA AS VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROF NOW OVR THE NRN ROCKIES DIGS SEWD AND
AMPLIFIES SENDING ATTENDING CDFNT RAPIDLY INTO THE RGN...QUITE A
BIT FASTER THAN MDL RUNS YDA.  ETA/AVN LOOK ON TARGET RAPIDLY
ADVECTING LOW LVL MSTR NWD TDA ACRS WRN MO IN ADVANCE OF CDFNT AS
STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW DVLPS IN THE WAKE OF THE HI.  MID/UPR 50S
CURRENTLY NOT FAR RMVD FM THE REGION ATTM /NE OK AND NW AR/.  THE
COMBO OF COLD MID LVL TMPS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OVR MOISTENING AND
WARMING LOW LVLS SHUD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ALG AND AHD
OF THE FNT/SFC TROF THIS AFT FM ERN OK INTO WRN MO.  INCRSG LRG SCALE
LIFT ASSOCD WITH AMPLIFYING UPR TROF AND LOW LVL WAA...AND AMPLE
CNVRGNC ALG THE CDFNT SHUD RESULT IN WDSPRD CNVCTV DVLPMNT...SPCLY FM
SW MO INTO PTNS OF MID MO BY LATE AFT.  ACTVY SHUD PROGRESS QUICKLY
EWD ACRS THE CWFA THIS EVNG BUT WL LIKELY NOT RMN AS STG AS IT
ENCOUNTERS LESSENING INSTABILITY. PCPN SHUD EXIT SW IL COUNTIES AFT
MIDNIGHT.  DECENT SHOT OF CAA AND DRYING WITH INITIAL CDFNT AND
QUESTION ON MON BCMS AMT OF ANY CD AIR STATOCU AND NET IMPACT ON
TMPS.  WUD LIKE TO SEE LONGER LIVED CYCLONIC LOW LVL FLOW AS AVN
ALREADY SHWG WLY FLOW AND H85 WAA DVLPG ON MON AFT AHD OF NEXT CD
SURGE. TMPS CUD GET A BIT TRICKY MON NGT AS THERE WL BE A PD OF WAA
AS SFC FLOW BACKS TO WSW AHD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SECOND CDFNT.

GUID TMPS LOOK IN THE BALLPARK TDA WITH A DECENT PD OF MRNG SUN BFR
CLDS AND CNVCTV DVLPMNT.  WL GIVE A NOD TWDS COOLER FWC TNGT AND
SPLIT THE DIF ON MON.

.STL...NONE
GLASS