Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2000

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM THIS MORNING IS CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

AT 07Z SHRA AND TSRA WERE ACROSS WESTERN FORECAST AREA (FA). MORE
TSRA WERE IN IL.  A SERIES OF S/WS ARE LINED UP IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.  WITH TRICKY NW
FLOW...WILL USE A BLEND.

AFTER INITIAL BATCH OF RAIN MOVES THROUGH FA THIS MORNING...ATMS
DESTABILIZES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ETA HAS CAPES OVER 2000 AND LI/S
DOWN TO -8.  NGM NOT QUITE AS UNSTABLE...BUT UNSTABLE NONETHELESS.
STRONG WAA AT 850 OCCURS TODAY AS WELL.  FEEL THAT SCATTERED STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTN...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING THIS
AFTN.

ALL MODELS SHOWING MORE TSTMS TONIGHT...WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN
CONTINUED WAA AND NW FLOW ALOFT.  WILL PUT POPS IN GOOD CHANCE
CATEGORY AND WORD AS SCATTERED.  FOR WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TROF MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FA DURING THE DAY...STABILIZING THE
ATMS.  AHEAD OF TROF...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE.  WILL KEEP
LOW CHANCE POPS GOING...BUT WILL END EARLY IN NWRN FA.

FWC/FAN TEMPS CLOSE THIS AFTN AND LOOK OKAY GIVEN WAA PATTERN. WILL
GO WITH WARMER FAN NUMBERS TONIGHT IN CONTINUED SW FLOW AT SFC.
NUMBERS LOOK OKAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

1ST PERIOD OF FORECAST SUBJECT TO CHANGE DUE TO PRECIP AT ISSUANCE
TIME.

.SDF...NONE
CS

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-231500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
500 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INDICATED THAT A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT CAUSING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THIS IS A PRELIMINARY OUTLOOK. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OR THE MEDIA FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION
ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.  SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.