Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
340 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

...FCST CHALLENGE TSTM CHCS...

YDY MARKED THE 1ST TIME IN 3 DAYS NO RER/S ISSUED FM LBF.  06Z SFC ANYLS
ILLUSTRATES STNRY FNT FM BADGER LAND SWRD THRU ERN NE...NWRN
KS...AND CO...B4 BCMG A TROF IN THE BEEHIVE STATE.  PRES FIELD
DISTORTED DUE TO ONGOING CONV.  HI PRES CENTERED OVR N CNTRL AZ WITH
OTHERS NOTED IN S CNTRL CO AND THE SRN PNDL OF ID.  UPR FEATURES CONSIST
OF HI PRES IN THE CAROLINAS WITH SW TO ZNL FLOW ACRS THE CNTRL US.  A
LO PRES SYS IN THE WRN US.  H8 FIELD DENOTES HI PRES ALNG THE MID
ATLNTC SEABOARD...STNRY FNT STRADDLING THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...WITH
A TROF XTNDNG S SWRD INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY. KLNX AND RGNL 88DS SHOW
40DBZ RTNS OVR THE PNDL...NE CO AND NWRN KS. HWVR LTL IN THE WAY OF
CIGS AS SFC OBS INDICATE MSTLY MID LVL CLDS.  MDL PREFERENCE THIS
CYCLE IS THE ETA...AS AVN PLCS PRECIP IN AREAS UNDER STG SUBSIDENCE
WITH BEST DYNAMICS TO THE N WHERE LTL TO NO OUTPUT IS GIVEN AT
00Z/MON.  HOWEVER DUE TO THE LACK OF MDLS PROPERLY ANALYZD ONGING
CONV IN ERN NE AND THE OK AREA CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM IN ENTIRE NCEP
SUITE.  ON THE BRIGHT SIDE ETA/NGM HAD GOOD HANDLE ON MSTR AND TEMP
FIELDS ON UPSTREAM FEATURES IN BIG SKY CNTRY.

AFOREMENTIONED STNRY FNT TO TURN INTO A WRM FNT AND RETREAT NWRD
DURING THE DAY SUN...CREATING TRIGGER MECHANISM FOR AFTN AND EVE
TSTM ACTVY.  FIRST CONCERN IS WHETHER PRECIP WL OCCUR IN MY SWRN ZNS
THIS MRNG AS UPR LVL DIV...WK DCVA...AND H6 WAVE PASS OVRHD. STLT
TRENDS POINT TO NO...BUT ATTM WILL LVE CURRENT FCST GOING WITH NO
MRNG PD.  LEE TROF DVLPS IN THE HI PLNS AND THE PNDL WITH FRNT HAD
TO DEPICT ACR NRN KS AND SRN NE.  ETA SOLTN YIELDS TO TSTM COMPLEX
DVLPNG BTWN 18Z-00Z OVR N CNTRL AND NERN NE WITH STG VORT MX
COUPLET...UPR LVL DIV...AHD OF EQUIV POT TEMP AND MSTS FLUX DIV
AXES.  ATMS QUITE UNSTBLE WITH H8-H7 MXNG RATIOS OF 8G/KG...PW GTR
THEN AN INCH...AND H8 DWPTS IN THE MID TEENS.  AS FOR CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS...LI/S AOA -5...SBCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG...AND H7-H5 LAPSE
RATES RANGING FM 7-9 C/KM FM E TO W.  FEEL A MORE LINEAR PATTERN WL
DEVELOP WITH UNIDRIECTIONAL SHEAR WITH PROPAGATION VECTORS YIELDING
A E NE MVMNT.  ALTHOUGH WL NOT RULE PSSBL ROTATION IF STORMS DVLP IN
CLOSE PROXMITY TO SFC BNDRY/OUTFLOWS.

BY 06Z SRN CWA STILL UNDER GOOD FORCING WITH WK UPR LVL WAVE AND
DCVA PASSING BY.  PRECIP WILL BE MORE SHOWERY THEN CONVECTIVE AS
DYNAMICS RMN STNRY IN ERN NE.  PVS FCST LOOKS GOOD AND WL RIDE.
LOWERED POPS IN THE S AND NW SLGHTY.

MON BRINGS MORE OF THE SAME WITH SIMILAR PATTERN AS TROF RMNS IN THE
PNDL WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR SHRA/S AND TSTMS.  HI TEMPS WRM A
LTL...SO  ARND 90 SHOULD CVR MOST OF THE CWA AS SRLY WNDS PERSIST.
REPEAT OF MON IN THE CARDS FOR TUES WITH ANTHR CHC FOR SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AS FNT MVS THRU.  FORCING RMNS STRG AT H7 LVL ALG WITH DCVA IN
H7-H3 LAYER.  PVS XTNDED HAS THE AREA COVERED AND WL NOT DEVIATE.
MAIN CONCERN IS THE LTL AMOUNT OF PRECIP PLACED ACR THE CWA BY THE
MDLS.  OTHERWISE REST OF EFP LOOKS ON TRACK...WITH TWEAKS IN THE
TEMPS.

.LBF...NONE

FWM

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-112045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1045 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT
WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON...
INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BY EVENING. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXTEND SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFTER 4 PM CDT...SOME
WHICH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS.

SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WARM...HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIR
OVER THE OUTLOOK AREA...WITH AFTERNOON HEATING TO FURTHER
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...
INTO PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA...WHERE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE EXISTS. THEN TONIGHT CONVECTION DEVELOPING FURTHER EAST
INTO PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A WEAK WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR SLOW MOVING STORMS...AND A CHANCE FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN IN
SOME LOCALES. AS THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

TLK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
157 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 PM    CODY                      NE   1.50 INCH HAIL
06/11/00   CHERRY

0130 PM    10 S CODY                 NE   1.25 INCH HAIL
06/11/00   CHERRY