Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
252 PM CDT SAT MAY 6 2000

TOUGH FORECAST AS FCST AREA IS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY.  MODEL SOLNS ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH
TIMING.  SO USING A PURE BLEND OF SOLNS FOR THIS FCST.

HAVE STNRY FRONT ACROSS IML-LBF-BBW-ONL THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...THEN
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS AREA.  FOR TONIGHT THINGS ARE
GETTING OFF TO A SLOW START AS IT WOULD SEEM WITH IS SATELLITE VOID
OF ANY STG WAVE...NO LIGHTNING INDICATED EXCEPT WITH WAVE OVER
ERN ID...WHICH WILL TRACK INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...TOO FAR NORTH
FOR OUR FCST AREA.  VSBY SATELLITE DOES INDICATE DEVELOPING CU FIELD
BETWEEN...SNY-AKO-OGA AREA AS FRONT HAS BECOME STNRY...UPSLOPE THETA
E ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY.  SFC BASED WAA IS WAY TOO FAR S THOUGH...N
TX BUT LURKING AT 850 MB THE ETA MODEL PROGS A DEEPENING LOW THIS
EVENING WITH ELEVATED TSRA A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.  MEANWHILE
MEDICINE BOW PROFILER WINDS MAY BE INDICATING A WND SHIFT AT THE
LOWEST GATE AND KLAR WINDS HAVE GONE WSW.  SPC OUTLOOK AREA WORDED
SOFTER NOW INDICATING WIDESPREAD SVR EVENT UNLIKELY.  OVERALL HAVE
LOWER POPS TO CHC CATEGORY AND FOLLOWED 12Z MESO ETA FOR PDS 1 AND 2.
MCS COULD GET GOING LATER TONIGHT AND CARRY ON THRU 12Z TIME FRAME
IN NERN ZONES.

WITH LATEST MODEL SOLNS INDICATING MUCH WEAKER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TONIGHT...OUTFLOW WOULD BE WEAKER AND THE STNRY FRONT WOULD ACTUALLY
RETREAT NWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO NR A SNY-VTN LINE.  A SECOND
DISTURBANCE IS INDICATED BY THE ETA LATE SUNDAY AFTN INTO EARLY
MONDAY AM.  TEMPS ARE A MAJOR PROBLEM SUNDAY AS NEARLY ALL MODELLED
SFC TEMPS ARE CLEARLY INDICATING WARM SECTOR SOUTH AND EAST OF SNY-
VTN LINE...POSSIBLY REACHING 90F OVER FRONTIER CO IN FAR SE.  FOR NOW
WILL BUY WARM SECTOR BUT EASE THE TEMPS CLOSER TO NGM/AVN GUIDANCE...
STILL A CAT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE BUT COOLER THEN MODELLED SFC TEMPS.

BY MONDAY MORNING...OUTFLOW HAS SLIPPED S OF FCST AREA TO NR GLD-GID
LINE BUT ONCE AGAIN AVN 700MB FIELDS AND TIME SECTIONS INDICATE
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE APCHG FCST AREA LATE MONDAY SO OPTED FOR SLIGHT
CHC POPS MAINLY MON NIGHT AND TUES.

WEDS 5AND THURS...DRY BUT CONT WARM AS MRF INDICATES RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY...GULF REMAINS LARGELY OPEN BUT DEEPENING WRN UPPER AIR LOW
WOULD SLOW THE ERN PROGRESSION OF WAVES AND GIVE THINGS A BREAK.

.LBF...NONE

CDC