Severe Thunderstorm Warning 128, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
223 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2000..CORRECTED TO ADD SVR TSRA WATCH

...MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE POPS TONIGHT...

ALL MODELS INITIALIZED WELL WITH 500MB LOW CENTERS OVER NORTHERN
QUEBEC AND WEST OF BRITISH COLUNBIA. FLAT RIDGE OVER THE SWRN US.
AVN AND NGM MODELS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
INTO THE NEBRASKA PNHDL AT 18Z. ETA LOW IS FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL
COLORADO. AVN IS VERIFYING BEST WITH SFC FEATURES AND WILL FAVOR THE
AVN.

TONIGHT...SFC LOW AT 00Z FRI SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR AKO COLORADO
WITH WM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SRN NEBR. SVR CONVECTION IN
CHERRY CNTY WILL PROPOGATE SOUTWARD INTO AREA OF BEST SFC MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IN SWRN NEBR THIS EVENING. DRYLINE ALSO PROGRESING EAST
FROM THE ERN PHNDL. AVN SHOWS GOOD OMEGA COUPLET WITH MCS MOVING SE
OF OF CWA BY 06Z. SOME WEAKER CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ERN
CWA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ETA MODEL SHOWS 650MB VORT LOBE
ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S.

FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH NO WEAK SHORTWAVES EVIDENT ON ETA OR AVN.
SFC WIND FIELD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARAIBLE...THEN LIGHT SE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FAVORING HIGHS AROUND 90 WEST AND MID 80S EAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT...SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE INTO CNTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS WILL AGAIN REMAIN QUITE WEAK
WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND LOWS AROUND 60 WEST AND 60 TO 65 EAST.

SATURDAY...SFC LOW TO DEEPEN IN WRN SD WITH LEE SIDE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO ERN COLORADO. WILL OPT FOR PARTLY SUNNY WEST
AND MOSTLY SUNNY EAST...AND MENTION LOW AFTERNOON POPS IN THE WEST.
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WEST AND HIGHS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 90S WILL DESTABLIZE THE SFC AS 700 SHORT WAVE GENERATES LIFT
BY LATE IN THE DAY. VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS OF 16 TO 18C MAY INHIBIT
CONVECTION HOWEVER.

EXTENDED...MRF AND UKMET BUILD UPPER RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN
PLAINS. RISK OF TSRA WILL BE ON THE PERIFERY OF THE RIDGE WITH
CONVECTION NOT LIKELY UNDER THE WARM UPPER RIDGE. 700 SHORTWAVE TO
TRAVERSE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHNACE OF TSRA. MORNING
TSRA POSSIBLE EAST...OTHERWISE DRY. HOT AND DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOWS IN THE 60S. HIGHS IN THE 90S.

.LBF...SVR THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 00Z FRI ZONES
004-005-023>025-022-056-035>037-057>059-069>071

ROBERG

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-292045-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1123 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2000

...STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON IS NORTH OF A LINE FROM HYANNIS
TO ONEILL...AND WEST OF A LINE FROM HYANNIS TO OGALLALA. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEST OF A LINE FROM VALENTINE TO BROKEN BOW.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION IS
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND WITH SOME SUNSHINE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY...
SOME STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH 5 PM CDT...NORTH OF A HYANNIS TO ONEILL LINE.

MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ADDITONAL
MOISTURE BEING BROUGHT IN ON SOUTHERLY WINDS...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW DEVELOPS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF A LINE FROM
HYANNIS TO OGALLALA BY MID AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IF THE STORMS INTERACT WITH
A DRYLINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL...BY MID AFTERNOON.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR WEATHER UPDATES.

JWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
220 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0125 PM    36 S MERRIMAN             NE   2.75 INCH HAIL
06/29/00   CHERRY

0135 PM    36 SSE MERRIMAN           NE   2.00 INCH HAIL
06/29/00   CHERRY

RLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
324 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0307 PM    4 N HYANNIS               NE   .88 INCH HAIL
06/29/00   GRANT

0310 PM    HYANNIS                   NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/29/00   GRANT

0245 PM    11 W MULLEN               NE   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/29/00   HOOKER

0243 PM    15 SW MULLEN              NE   TORNADO
06/29/00   HOOKER

0250 PM    57 SE MERRIMAN            NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/29/00   CHERRY

0303 PM    1 N MULLEN                NE   1.00 INCH HAIL
06/29/00   HOOKER

0300 PM    17SW MULLEN               NE   TORNADO
06/29/00   HOOKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE, NE
414 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    20 S SENECA               NE   .75 INCH HAIL
06/29/00   THOMAS

DP