Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS JSJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST THU NOV 2 2000

BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST TIP OF
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W NORTHEAST TO 20N65W AND FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. GUIDANCE HAS A GOOD LOCK ON FRONTAL
SYSTEM BASED ON 1000MB VORTICITY AXIS WHICH MOVE HAS FRONTAL PASSAGE
SOMETIME TODAY WITH COLDEST AIR TO LAG BEHIND 12-24 HOURS. WILL SEE
SIGNIFICANT DECREASE IN BOTH MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND HAVE SUCH ADVERTISED IT ACCORDINGLY.

WITH FROPA EXPECTED TONIGHT...PASSAGE OF 250MB TROUGH
ALOFT...DECREASE IN MOISTURE BY MORNING WILL DROP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY
ALL ZONES AS STABLE AIR SETTLES IN AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTING COOLING OF 4 DEGREES CELSIUS OR MORE
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY AND WILL THUS DECREASE TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY
UPPER ELEVATIONS. LOW LAST NIGHT AT SAN JUAN AIRPORT WAS 74 DEGREES
WHICH WAS ONLY 3 DEGREES FROM THE RECORD OF 71. RECORD LOW TONIGHT
IS AGAIN 71 WHICH MAKES IT A POSSIBLY. FRIDAYS RECORD A LITTLE BIT
MORE DIFFICULT TO BREAK AT 69 DEGREES BUT NOT OUT OF THE
PICTURE...WE WILL SEE.

WILL CONTINUE WITH PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT AND NOT GO WITH A SCA
JUST YET. NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE COMING IN BUT SEE NO EVIDENCE THAT
SEAS HAVE REACHED 7 FT YET. HOWEVER...SO BELIEVE THAT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH LARGEST SWELLS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. GWW SHOWING PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD AT 10 SECONDS AND WAVE
HEIGHT AT 2.3 METERS BY SUNDAY MORNING AND STILL RAISING.

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
SJU BB 073/085 071/086 074 07300
STT BB 074/087 075/086 076 07420=

EQUIPMENT: NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

.SJU...
.PR...NONE.
.VI...NONE.

TIRADO

WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS (IN ENGLISH OR SPANISH)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
...DOPPLER RADAR DATA...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITES AT:

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU (ALL LOWER CASE).

    OR

HTTP://WWW.UPR.CLU.EDU/NWS (ALL LOWER CASE).