Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 PM CST FRI MAR 3 2000

WARM FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ALONG THE MS RIVER MOVES EAST. TEMPERATURES IN
THE WARM SECTOR ARE IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S. 88D SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA.

ETA AND AVIATION MODELS ARE VERY SIMILAR IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. LOW
OVER EXTREME NORTHWEST MS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. MAIN SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
JET DYNAMICS WILL ALSO PASS NORTH OF THE CWFA. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ANOTHER FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW...MODELS ARE INDICATING GOOD DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS STARTING AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT THE LOW LEVEL RHS STILL
REMAIN PRETTY HIGH THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW. OVERALL...WILL MENTION
"DECREASING CLOUDS" FOR TOMORROWS SKY COND.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FROM FAN AND MOS LOOK REASONABLE AND WILL TAKE
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. AS FAR AS POPS GO...MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE DECREASING POPS FROM THE WEST...AND WILL NOT
DEVIATE FROM THE CHANCE POPS IN EASTERN MS FOR TONIGHT.

QPF DISCUSSION: WITH FRONT ALONG MISS RIVER AT NOONTIME...AND
PUSHING INTO AL BY 02Z...PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO MAINLY
EASTERN HALF OF FA...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN ONE TENTH INCH.

EXTENDED: WEATHER WILL REMAIN FAIR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE
NORMAL. WEDNESD.AY LOOKS TO BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE CWFA.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
JAN 048/062/038/072 1000
MEI 050/061/037/073 3000

.JAN...
MS...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.

32/16

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
040400-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1015 AM CST FRI MAR 3 2000

A WARM FRONT ALONG INTERSTATE 20 WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OVER
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...BRINGING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S...NEAR 80 ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
STATE...ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY NOONTIME...THEN INTO ALABAMA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CAPES WILL BE ABOVE
1000 J/KG SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 82(APPROACHING 1600 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI) AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ALONG WITH WEAK DYNAMICS FROM
A WEAK MID-LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE. WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE...THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM THE STORMS. THE
MAIN THREAT AREA WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A COLUMBUS TO JACKSON TO
BROOKHAVEN LINE.

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL AND HAM
RADIO OPERATORS MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR NEW INTERNET WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN