Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
215 PM EST TUE MAY 9 2000

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT...WITH ETA PERHAPS
BEST WITH PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES.

5H VORT MOVES FROM KS THIS AFTERNOON TO SC IL BY 06Z WED AND TO
IN/OH BORDER BY 12Z...AS SFC LOW OVER C IL MOVES TO LE BY 06Z AND LO
BY 12Z...ALLOWING SFC COLD FRONT TO EXIT MY CWA AROUND DAWN
WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT NORTH AND NORTHEAST PARTS OF CWA HAVE BEST MOISTURE...LIFT...
AND THETA E ADV. PWATS ARE 1.5 TO 1.6 WITH QPFS OF ABOUT AN INCH
OVERNIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FALL...BUT AM ON THE FENCE
ABOUT NECESSITY OF FFA. WHILE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES MAY
BE REQUIRED LATER WITH THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS...THINK FFA CAN BE
DROPPED DUE TO DRY GROUND AND LACK OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST
NIGHT/TODAY. FFG VALUES ARE 3.5 TO 4 INCHES PER SIX HOURS IN CENTRAL
AND EAST COUNTIES...2.5 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NORTHWEST.

SPC CURRENTLY MONITORING WESTERN CWA FOR WW. WILL MENTION
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IN ZONES ATTM...WILL MAKE APPROPRIATE
WORDING/HEADLINE CHANGES IF/WHEN WW IS ISSUED.

WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING...
BUT OTHERWISE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL MAKE FOR A BEAUTIFUL DAY.

WILL KEEP POPS IN WESTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY BUT WILL KEEP THEM
LOW. AVN IS PROGGING A STRONG CAP WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT AND NOT
ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE. MAIN SHOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM WELL
WEST OF HERE.

IN THE EXTENDED WILL BUMP SATURDAYS SHOWERS UP TO FRIDAY AND WILL
KEEP WEEKEND DRY AS RIDGE BUILDS IN.

TEMPS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLOW.

TKS TO DTX FOR COORD.

.IWX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR ALL NORTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES.

REAUGH

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-092130-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1023 AM EST TUE MAY 9 2000

...SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN TO A
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS MORNING...WITH A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER OKLAHOMA.

THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ARE FORECAST
TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADVANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE
WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
LOGANSPORT TO STURGIS LINE. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS...AND OTHER INTERESTED CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR THIS
DEVELOPING SITUATION AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN. SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.