Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Northern Indiana

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
238 PM EST MON MAY 8 2000

FORECAST CAHLLENGE: TIMING AND SEVERITY OF CONVECTION NEXT 36 HOURS.

MODEL PREFERENCE: MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AT THE SURFACE THIS
EVENING BUT THEN AVN STARTS MOVING FEATURES TOO FAST TOMORROW.
MODELS DISAGREE QUITE A BIT ON MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS TONIGHT...BUT COME
TOGETHER FAIRLY WELL TOMORROW. WILL LEAN TOWARD ETA/NGM BLEND.

SHORT TERM: LOW PRESSURE NEAR DULUTH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE TO
SE ONTARIO BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING AS ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND HEADS NE ALONG THE FRONT. AT 12Z TOMORROW THE
FRONT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS MY NORTHWEST COUNTIES...THE WAVE COMING
UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SLOW THE FRONTS PROGRESSION...BY 00Z
THE WAVE REACHES NORTHERN IN...THEN WHOLE SYSTEM FINALLY EXITS MY
CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

+TSRA ARE FORMING NEAR KDVN ATTM IN TOA. AS THESE STORMS MOVE
NORTHEAST AND THE SYSTEM PROPOGATES EAST THEY COULD MAKE IT TO
NORTHWEST CWA LATER THIS EVENING SO WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS THERE.
REST OF CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL ENERGY SHOULD BE IMPETUS FOR
MOST SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION OF THE DAY TOMORROW. MODELS INDICATE
IMPRESSIVE OMEGA AND PWATS AROUND 1.60. LOW LEVEL JET TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WILL STRETCH FROM S IL TO W OH WITH SPEEDS TO 45 KT...
STRENGTHENING TO 50 KT TOMORROW EVENING. MEANWHILE UPPER JET OF
85 TO 95 KT MOVES THROUGH UPPER LAKES WITH SIMILAR JET MAX COMING
OUT OF THE PLAINS.

LI IN SE CWA TOMORROW PM OF -5 TO -7...CAPE OF 2000 TO 2500.

APPEARS BEST CHANCE FOR SVR TMRW WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WITH BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN ATMOSPHERE AND
TRAINING STORMS SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET QUITE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

WEDNESDAY WILL INCLUDE MORNING SHOWERS IN EASTERN ZONES AS SYSTEM
DEPARTS.

EXTENDED: DRY FOR MOST ZONES...SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN NW CWA
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY AS SYSTEMS SLIDE THROUGH THE LAKES OVER THE TOP
OF A RIDGE IN SOUTHEAST U.S. IN CONTINUING SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.

TEMPS: WILL GO WARMER THAN MOS TONIGHT GIVEN WAA...CURRENT DEW
POINTS...AND LOWS OF LAST COUPLE NIGHTS. WILL LEAN TOWARD WARMER
NGM MOS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

THANKS TO ILN FOR COORD.

.IWX...NONE.

REAUGH