Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
235 PM EST TUE JUN 20 2000

PROBLEMS TODAY ARE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND SVR WX.

AT 18Z CDFNT WAS OVER WESTERN MO.  A LINE OF TSRA WAS MOVING ENE
THRU CENTRAL IL.  SPC IS CONSIDERING A WATCH BOX FOR CENTRL IN AHEAD
OF THAT LINE.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT BUT LEANED TOWARD THE ETA THIS AFTN
BECAUSE OF ITS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND IT IS HANDLING THE SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES BETTER.

H5 CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW ALSO
MOVES EAST ACRS SRN CANADA.  MODELS HAVE SLOWED THIS SYSTEM FROM
YESTERDAYS 12Z RUN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS WHICH WOULD PUT THE FRONT
THROUGH THE IND CWA BY WED AFTN.  A FEW SWVS PASS OVER INDIANA THIS
AFTN...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  BEST DYNAMICS ARE WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS EVIDENT
IN THE LINE OF TSRA CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IL.  BEST UVVS
AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE ARE TONIGHT ARND 00Z AND THEN TAPERING OFF
AFT MIDNIGHT.  REPORTS FROM IL HAVE RAINFALL AMTS AT .6 - 1.0 AND
HIGHER WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE PWATS FORECASTED.  SO WILL
PROBABLY HAVE HEAVY RAIN OCCURING AS THIS LINE PASSES THROUGH WITH
WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND 1 INCH WITH ISOLATED 2-3 INCH. WILL GO WITH
FF WATCH FOR TONIGHT.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON WED AFTN.  GUIDENCE HAS
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AND SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE.

.IND...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT IND CWA.
SALLY

INZ021-029>031-036>039-044>047-051>055-060>063-202200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
411 PM EST TUE JUN 20 2000

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER CENTRAL INDIANA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY AND SHOULD FALL MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...BUT SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE UP TO THREE
INCHES.

MOST RIVERS AND STREAMS IN CENTRAL INDIANA WERE NEAR BANKFULL
ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL ONLY WORSEN THE
FLOODING SITUATION.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER INDIANA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THE HEAVY RAINS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER SOURCE FOR LATER UPDATES AND
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ON THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION.

INZ021-029>031-036>039-044>047-051>055-060>063-202230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
429 PM EST TUE JUN 20 2000

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE STORMS EXTENDED FROM THE DELPHI...FRANKFORT
AND LAFAYETTE AREAS...DOWN THROUGH CRAWFORDSVILLE TO THE GREENCASTLE
AREA. ALL STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MILES AN HOUR.

WHEN STORMS APPROACH TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL
DEADLY LIGHTNING...STRONG WIND AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARRIVES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND NORTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL INDIANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.

GRAYSON

INZ021-030-031-037>039-043-044-046-047-051-052-202230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
458 PM EST TUE JUN 20 2000

THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA...MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE A HISTORY OF VERY HEAVY
RAIN WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND VIVID LIGHTNING.

STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL MOVE INTO TIPTON...HAMILTON
AND MARION COUNTIES BY 530 PM EST. STORMS MOVING INTO WEST CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL PUSH THROUGH VIGO AND SOUTHERN VERMILLION COUNTIES BY
515 PM EST AND INTO CLAY AND PARKE COUNTIES BY 530 PM.

SEEK SHELTER IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF APPROACHING STORMS.

MJS