Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 PM CDT TUE 20 2000

MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND HOW LONG TO
CARRY PRECIP TOMORROW. ETA/AVN SEEMED TO HAVE INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY
BETTER AND CONTINUED TO BE CLOSER WITH LOCATION OF SFC FRONT. SFC
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT, WITH 850MB THETA-E RIDGE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN THERE AS WELL. 850MB DEW POINTS OF 16+ GET SHOVED
SOUTH BY FRONT HOWEVER EXPECT 12+ DEW POINTS TO HANG AROUND UNTIL
12Z WED. 300MB SPEED MAX IS JUST TO OUR NORTH, THIS LEAVES US IN AN
AREA OF SPEED DIVERGENCE. DIVERGENCE PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS SOUTHERN
KANSAS ARE GENERALLY 1.3-1.5. WILL GO WITH RAIN LIKELY POPS
SCEN/OCCASIONAL POPS SE. FLASH FLOOD VALUES ARE BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN KANSAS. FEEL A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WOULD BE PRUDENT TONIGHT FROM WICHITA EAST.

WITH FRONT STALLING ACROSS KS/OK BORDER WILL CONTINUE SMALL POPS FOR
SOUTHERN KS TOMORROW, MAINLY MORNING FOR THE SCEN SECTION. EXPECT
FRONT TO BE PUSHED NORTH DURING THE DAY WED, WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS THE CEN SECTION LATE. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY FOR THAT
TIME ATTM BUT MID-SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH. WILL ALSO LEAVE FRIDAY
DRY.

CURRENT FCST TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER WILL
RAISE LOWS TONIGHT FOR SCEN/SE SECTIONS. WILL ALSO RAISE LOWS
TOMORROW NIGHT SLIGHTLY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.

EXTENDED LOOKS FINE. HOWEVER WILL PUSH PRECIP CHCS SAT TO LATE SAT.

FCSTID = 7/NRR
ICT   65  83  65  91 /  70  30  10   5
HUT   61  86  62  92 /  40  10  10   5
EWK   62  85  63  91 /  40  10  10   5
EQA   66  84  63  90 /  70  30  10   5
WLD   67  82  65  90 /  70  30  10   5
RSL   57  86  60  92 /   5  10  10   5
GBD   58  86  60  92 /   5  10  10   5
SLN   58  87  60  92 /   5  10  10   5
MPR   60  87  60  92 /  40  10  10   5
CFV   68  80  65  89 /  80  30  10   5
CNU   67  81  65  89 /  80  30  10   5
K88   66  82  65  89 /  80  30  10   5

.ICT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES
KSZ069>072...KSZ083...KSZ092>096...KSZ098>100.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1057 AM CDT TUE JUN 20 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:

RUSSELL        LINCOLN        SALINE
BARTON         ELLSWORTH      RICE
MCPHERSON      MARION         CHASE

IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS:

RENO           HARVEY         BUTLER
KINGMAN        SEDGWICK
HARPER         SUMNER         COWLEY

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:

GREENWOOD      ELK            CHAUTAUQUA
WOODSON        WILSON         MONTGOMERY
ALLEN          NEOSHO         LABETTE

SYNOPSIS:
A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS AT MIDDAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TODAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BROUGHT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA.

AS THE FRONT ENCOUNTERS THIS UNSTABLE AIR...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP NEAR A SALINA TO HUTCHINSON LINE BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

ONCE THE STORMS FORM...THEY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. WIND
PROFILES SUGGEST THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES IS SMALL...BUT AN
ISOLATED SMALL TORNADO MAY OCCUR.

LATER TONIGHT...THE STORMS WILL ORGANIZE INTO A LARGE COMPLEX
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THESE STORMS WILL BRING
VERY HEAVY RAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54. BECAUSE THE GROUND
IS SATURATED...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE
POSSIBLE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY SOUTHEAST OF A SALINA TO HUTCHINSON
LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

HYSELL