Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
350 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THREAT
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN AREAL COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION
WHICH HOLDS KEY FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CWA
OVERNIGHT...

LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWS STRONG JET DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF AMPLIFYING
TROUGH.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS ONE VORT ROTATING THROUGH NW NEB INTO SW
SD WITH SECOND VORT SLIDING SE ACROSS WY. MESOSCALE FORCING ALREADY
AT WORK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AS EVIDENT BY LAPS WHICH SHOWS MID
LEVEL TEMPS COOLING WITH CAP WEAKENING QUICKLY NORTH OF SLN.
ABUNDANT CU FIELD ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG BOUNDARY.  STILL SOME WAVES WITHIN CLOUD
STREETS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE 800-700 MB TEMPS STILL AROUND
12-13C AS OF 18Z.  EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BKN LINE OF
SUPERCELLS FROM SLN TOWARD MEDICINE LODGE.  AT THIS TIME HP
SUPERCELLS LOOK TO BE THE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION INITIALLY.
TORNADO THREAT WILL HINGE UPON THE AMOUNT OF NEAR SFC BACKING THAT
CAN TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN STORM RELATIVE
FLOW...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR RIGHT MOVERS. SECONDARY SFC LOW IS
DEVELOPING NEAR LIBERAL AND THIS MAY AID IN BACKING SFC WINDS AND
SUBSEQUENT TORNADO THREAT.  AT ANY RATE FEEL THAT CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE INTO A MCS AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WITH
INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING ENE AT 25-30KTS WITH SE PROPAGATION OF
ENTIRE SYSTEM AT AROUND 20 KTS. AS FOR HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING
THREAT...MOISTURE PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS EVENING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF 1.60 INCHES ALONG WITH POOLING 850
DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 14C AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...SFC DEWPOINTS
WILL POOL TO AROUND 70F.  AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE 90-100 PERCENT PER
GOING FCST BASED ON STRENGTH OF FORCING/MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.  850
MOISTURE ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ARE CENTERED ON SOUTH CENTRAL
KS/NORTH CENTRAL OK JUXTAPOSED UNDER STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE THROUGH
9Z. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG HEAVY RAINS WOULD PERSIST/TRAINING
THREAT...850 THETAE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED SW OF ICT ACROSS NORTHERN
OK WHERE NOSE OF 50 KT LLJ WILL HELP TO RE GENERATE CELLS.  LLJ WILL
VEER WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND 700MB GRADIENT WILL DECREASE WHICH
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING MAINLY SE OF ICT.  AS FOR SUB
TROPICAL TAPS...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MORNING WAVE HAS PUSHED AXIS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE SE SO THAT THREAT SEEMS MINIMAL AT THIS
TIME.  CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY DRY ACROSS THE
REGION AS OF LATE AND FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 2.5-3.5 INCH
RANGE OVER 3 TO 6 HOURS.  FEEL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE A 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES BUT GIVEN
RELATIVELY HIGH FFG VALUES AND DRYNESS OF LAST TWO WEEKS WILL HOLD
OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW...BUT WILL WATCH NATURE OF MCS EVOLUTION
CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

AS FOR WINDS WILL LET THE ADVISORY DIE AT 6 PM...NON THUNDERSTORM
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
A SECONDARY ISSUE THIS EVENING.

BEYOND TONIGHT...SUPPORT A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF TROUGH WITH
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS.  NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER STRONG
WAVE TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...REGION STAYS IN THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH MRF
INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE SAT INTO
SUN...ECMWF DOES NOT RESOLVE THIS WAVE.  WILL KEEP GOING FCST WITH
NO CHANGES.

FCSTID = 11/OMITT
ICT   64  80  58  87 / 100  20   5  20
HUT   62  80  58  87 / 100  20   5  20
EWK   63  80  58  87 / 100  20   5  20
EQA   63  79  58  86 / 100  20   5  20
WLD   64  79  58  86 / 100  20   5  20
RSL   57  82  55  88 /  10   0   0  20
GBD   57  82  55  88 /  30   0   0  20
SLN   61  82  57  88 /  50   0   0  20
MPR   61  82  57  87 /  70   0   0  20
CFV   66  76  56  81 / 100  50   5  10
CNU   66  76  56  81 / 100  50   5  10
K88   65  76  56  80 / 100  50   5  10

OMITT

COORD OUN TUL

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-132128-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
409 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

...TORNADO WATCH UPDATE...

THE TORNADO WATCH FOR RUSSELL COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
HOWEVER...THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
KANSAS UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

KED

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-132130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
416 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.82 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 444.0 AND 146.94
MHZ.

HOWERTON

KSZ032-047-132245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
523 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

...TORNADO WATCH UPDATE...

THE TORNADO WATCH FOR BARTON COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
HOWEVER...THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
KANSAS UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

CO

KSZ032-033-047-132245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
528 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

...TORNADO WATCH UPDATE...

THE TORNADO WATCH FOR LINCOLN COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
HOWEVER...THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF CENTRAL
KANSAS UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

CO

KSZ048>053-140100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
716 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

...TORNADO WATCH UPDATE...

THE TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ELLSWORTH...RICE AND
SALINE COUNTIES.  THE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MCPHERSON...MARION
AND CHASE COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM CDT.

HOWERTON