Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
245 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

FOCUS ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THREAT
INTO THIS EVENING...THEN AREAL COVERAGE AND MOVEMENT OF CONVECTION
WHICH HOLDS KEY FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF CWA
OVERNIGHT...

LATEST UPPER AIR SHOWS STRONG JET DIGGING ON BACKSIDE OF AMPLIFYING
TROUGH.  WATER VAPOR SHOWS ONE VORT ROTATING THROUGH NW NEB INTO SW
SD WITH SECOND VORT SLIDING SE ACROSS WY. MESOSCALE FORCING ALREADY
AT WORK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS AS EVIDENT BY LAPS WHICH SHOWS MID
LEVEL TEMPS COOLING WITH CAP WEAKENING QUICKLY NORTH OF SLN.
ABUNDANT CU FIELD ALSO DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS
MOISTURE POOLS ALONG BOUNDARY.  STILL SOME WAVES WITHIN CLOUD
STREETS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE 800-700 MB TEMPS STILL AROUND
12-13C AS OF 18Z.  EXPECT INITIAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BKN LINE OF
SUPERCELLS FROM SLN TOWARD MEDICINE LODGE.  AT THIS TIME HP
SUPERCELLS LOOK TO BE THE NATURE OF THE CONVECTION INITIALLY.
TORNADO THREAT WILL HINGE UPON THE AMOUNT OF NEAR SFC BACKING THAT
CAN TAKE PLACE THIS EVENING AND INCREASE IN STORM RELATIVE FLOW.
SECONDARY SFC LOW IS DEVELOPING NEAR LIBERAL AND THIS MAY AID IN
BACKING SFC WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT TORNADO THREAT.  AT ANY RATE FEEL
THAT CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE INTO A MCS AFTER SUNSET ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KS WITH INDIVIDUAL CELLS MOVING ENE AT 25-30KTS WITH SE
PROPAGATION OF ENTIRE SYSTEM AT AROUND 20 KTS. AS FOR HEAVY
RAIN/FLOODING THREAT...MOISTURE PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE THIS
EVENING WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS IN EXCESS OF 1.60 INCHES ALONG WITH
POOLING 850 DEWPOINTS IN EXCESS OF 14C AFTER 00Z. IN ADDITION...SFC
DEWPOINTS WILL POOL TO AROUND 70F.  AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE
90-100 PERCENT PER GOING FCST BASED ON STRENGTH OF FORCING/MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY.  850 MOISTURE ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ARE CENTERED ON
SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTH CENTRAL OK JUXTAPOSED UNDER STRONG UPPER
DIVERGENCE THROUGH 9Z. NEXT QUESTION IS HOW LONG HEAVY RAINS WOULD
PERSIST/TRAINING THREAT...850 THETAE RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED SW OF ICT
ACROSS NORTHERN OK WHERE NOSE OF 50 KT LLJ WILL HELP TO RE GENERATE
CELLS.  LLJ WILL VEER WITH TIME OVERNIGHT AND 700MB GRADIENT WILL
DECREASE WHICH INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING MAINLY SE OF
ICT.  AS FOR SUB TROPICAL TAPS...WATER VAPOR SHOWS MORNING WAVE HAS
PUSHED AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE OFF TO THE SE SO THAT THREAT SEEMS
MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.  CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN VERY WARM AND RELATIVELY
DRY ACROSS THE REGION AS OF LATE AND FFG VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE
2.5-3.5 INCH RANGE OVER 3 TO 6 HOURS.  FEEL THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE
A 1-2 INCH RAINFALL WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES BUT
GIVEN RELATIVELY HIGH FFG VALUES AND DRYNESS OF LAST TWO WEEKS WILL
HOLD OFF ON WATCH FOR NOW...BUT WILL WATCH NATURE OF MCS EVOLUTION
CLOSELY THIS EVENING.

AS FOR WINDS WILL LET THE ADVISORY DIE AT 6 PM...NON THUNDERSTORM
WINDS SHOULD EASE BACK TO BELOW CRITERIA LEVELS AND WILL QUICKLY BECOME
A SECONDARY ISSUE THIS EVENING.

BEYOND TONIGHT...SUPPORT A MORE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF TROUGH WITH
CLEARING SKIES MOST AREAS.  NW FLOW IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER STRONG
WAVE TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

EXTENDED...REGION STAYS IN THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH MRF
INDICATING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA LATE SAT INTO
SUN...ECMWF DOES NOT RESOLVE THIS WAVE.  CURRENT FCST IS DRY AND
WILL KEEP A DRY FCST WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

OMITT

COORD OUN TUL
`
.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-140359-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1143 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:

RUSSELL        LINCOLN        SALINE
BARTON         ELLSWORTH      RICE
MCPHERSON      MARION         CHASE

IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS:

RENO           HARVEY         BUTLER
KINGMAN        SEDGWICK
HARPER         SUMNER         COWLEY

IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:

GREENWOOD      ELK            CHAUTAUQUA
WOODSON        WILSON         MONTGOMERY
ALLEN          NEOSHO         LABETTE

SYNOPSIS:
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL EXIST
ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PROFILES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS BY LATE
AFTERNOON...THEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EARLY THIS EVENING.
THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE VERY QUICKLY. LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER THREATS. HOWEVER
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE INTO MID-EVENING.

THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A SQUALL LINE AS
THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY
THREAT IN THESE AREAS AFTER DARK WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS...MAINLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCES FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS.

DARMOFAL