Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
305 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

NOT THE MOST CLEAR-CUT FORECAST IN THE WORLD. FORECAST PROBLEMS ARE
RAIN/STORM CHANCES IN ALL FORECAST PERIODS AND THE IMPACT OF
DEWPOINTS AND CLOUD COVER ON FORECAST TEMPERATURES.

PREFER AVN/ETA MIX AS NGM MODEL SEEMS TO SHOW TYPICAL BIASES...E.G
BEING TOO FAR NORTH WITH MAIN SURFACE LOW.  HOWEVER...NOT SURE TO
WHAT EXTENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK MAY BE OCCURRING IN ETA SOLUTION...
THOUGH AVN DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES SIMILAR VORT MAXES AS ETA.

CURRENTLY SEEING LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WRN KS
IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT AT AND ABOVE 700MB.  FUTURE OF THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS UNCERTAIN GIVEN LOTS OF DRIER AIR BELOW 700MB OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...THOUGH IT HAS BEEN MAKING GOOD EASTWARD
PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS/PROFILERS INDICATE WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  SURFACE
COLDFRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER NORTHERN OK THIS EVENING.  CAN
CLEARLY SEE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
AREA OF MID 70S DEWPOINTS SEEN OVER FAR NRN OK ON MESONET.  SHOULD
SEE T-STORMS DEVELOP RAPIDLY OVER NRN OK OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
BIG QUESTION FOR TONIGHT IS HOW FAR NORTH PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR
AFTER THIS INITIAL WAVE.  MODELS DO SUGGEST DECENT ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF KS.  BEST SUPPORT SEEMS TO BE OVER
SOUTHERN KS/NORTHERN OK WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW ON NOSE OF APPROACHING
UPPER JET...LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND MOISTURE POOLING
COME TOGETHER.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS NEAR OK BRDR...DECREASING
TO 40 POPS FOR RSL/SLN AREAS.  LOW TEMPS DEPEND ON HOW LOW SURFACE
DEW POINTS ARE IF/WHEN RAIN ARRIVES...AND EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
DURING NIGHT.  WILL PROBABLY GO A FEW DEGREES BELOW THE COOLER FAN
GUIDANCE.

ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS IN THE MORNING SHOULD END.  NOT QUITE SURE ON
EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE SKIES BECOME
PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS
ARRIVING IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  WILL PROBABLY GO WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS FOR THE DAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER...SO FOR NOW WILL PROBABLY GO
WITH A 75 TO 80 RANGE.

AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TOMORROW EVENING...MODELS SHOW
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHWARD ON S TO SE FLOW...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK UP IN THE 60S...PERHAPS NEAR 70 SOUTHERNMOST
COUNTIES.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN
KS...MOVING EAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF WARM
FRONT.  WITH FRONT REDEVELOPING NORTHWARD...BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILLL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR CTRL KS...AND CHANCE POPS FOR SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS.

UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL NOT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY...WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN ALL ZONES.
TROUGH PASSES DURING THE DAY...BUT MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER ONE
APPROACHING SATURDAY...SO WILL NEED TO MENTION A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THEN.  SHOULD SEE DRIER/WARMER WEATHER SUN/MON WITH
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

WOLF
FCSTID = 19
ICT   58  79  64  82 /  50  30  50  30
HUT   57  79  63  83 /  50  30  50  30
EWK   58  79  64  82 /  50  30  50  30
EQA   58  78  63  82 /  50  30  50  30
WLD   60  79  64  82 /  70  40  40  30
RSL   54  79  63  80 /  40  20  70  30
GBD   55  79  64  81 /  40  20  70  30
SLN   56  79  63  80 /  40  20  70  30
MPR   56  79  64  80 /  40  20  70  30
CFV   62  77  64  82 /  70  40  40  30
CNU   60  77  64  82 /  70  40  40  30
K88   60  77  63  81 /  50  40  50  40

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-250500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TYPO 2ND PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1246 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL     SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE      BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN       ELK         LABETTE     NEOSHO      WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA  GREENWOOD   MONTGOMERY  WILSON

THE SYNOPSIS:
AT MIDDAY A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...INTO A LOW IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.  WARM AND MOIST AIR WAS
LOCATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...NORTH OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE
AREA...LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING.  SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING.  THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.  THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54.

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
522 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....$

0430 PM    6 SSE DUQUOIN             KS   .88 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   HARPER

0430 PM    6 SSE DUQUOIN             KS
05/24/00   HARPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
522 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 PM    6 SSE DUQUOIN             KS   .88 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   HARPER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
546 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 PM    6 SSE DUQUOIN             KS   .88 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   HARPER

0430 PM    6 SSE DUQUOIN             KS
05/24/00   HARPER

537  PM    UDALL                     KS   .88 INCH HAIL
05/24/00   COWLEY