Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
316 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2000

PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON
AS APPROACHING SYSTEM TO TAKE AIM ON THE AREA.  FAIRLY ACTIVE
PATTERN SETTING UP AS PACIFIC NW SYSTEM CURRENTLY COMING ONSHORE IS
FORECAST TO REACH NRN COLO BY SUNDAY.  IN THE MEANTIME...SFC FRONT
BISECTING THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWD AND REMAIN FOCUS FOR
TSRA DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TWRD THE ETA/AVN SOLNS FOR OVERALL FORECAST TREND.

INITIAL CONCERN FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AMS AHEAD OF SFC BOUNDARY BECOMING SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE AND CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE.  THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS
SOMETHING WHICH HAS BEEN PREVIOUSLY LACKING...MOISTURE.  LATEST
SURFACE ANALYS SHOWS FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWING SOME ACROSS THE STATE
WITH BEST PUSH OCCURING TO THE NORTH OVER NEBRASKA.  WILL CONTINUE
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
CWA OVERNIGHT.

AS SFC BOUNDARY PUSHES SWD AND SLOWS...MODELS DEPICT OVERRUNNING
SITUATION SETTING UP BY SUNDAY.  EXPECT MOISTURE TO ALREADY BE IN
PLACE AND WILL MENTION MAINLY SH/RA TYPE FOR SUNDAY.  HOWEVER AS
UPPER LOW NEARS...SOME ENERGY APPEARS TO BE EJECTED AHEAD OF IT
WHICH MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES TO BE MARKEDLY COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND AS COLD AIR
PUSHES SWD IN THE WAKE OF FRONT. GENERALLY PREFER MAV NUMBERS OVER
NGM.

IN THE EXTENDED...UPPER SYSTEM TO REMAIN INVOF KANSAS INTO MONDAY
BEFORE BEING PUSHED MORE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST.  REGION THEN TO BE IN
NWRLY FLOW BEFORE SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING TAKES PLACE TOWARD WEEKS END.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION AND OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH MONDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT WARMING EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

FCSTID = 16
ICT   60  69  51  61 /  30  10  30  40
HUT   59  65  48  59 /  30  10  30  40
EWK   60  65  49  60 /  30  10  30  40
EQA   60  68  50  61 /  30  10  30  40
WLD   61  70  51  62 /  30  10  30  40
RSL   50  58  43  56 /  10  10  30  40
GBD   51  59  44  55 /  10  10  30  40
SLN   55  62  46  59 /  20  10  30  40
MPR   56  61  45  58 /  20  10  30  40
CFV   68  74  55  64 /  40  20  30  40
CNU   67  74  54  63 /  40  20  30  40
K88   65  73  53  63 /  40  20  30  40

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ049-051>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-222200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1226 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2000

A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES IN:

CENTRAL KANSAS:
         CHASE              MARION              MCPHERSON
         SALINE

SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS:
         BUTLER              COWLEY              HARPER
         HARVEY              KINGMAN             RENO
         SEDGWICK            SUMNER

SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
         ALLEN               CHAUTAUQUA          ELK
         GREENWOOD           LABETTE             MONTGOMERY
         NEOSHO              WILSON              WOODSON...

THE SYNOPSIS:
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO HUTCHINSON AFTER 4 PM...AND
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND.

A COLD FRONT...EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WILL PUSH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WARM...MOIST AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IS
IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS.e

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG AND EAST OF A SALINA TO
HUTCHINSON LINE...AFTER 4 PM.