Severe Thunderstorm Warning 152, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
235 PM CDT TUE JUL 18 2000

MAIN FCST PROBLEMS: POPS/TEMPS OVER NEXT 48 HRS. MODERATE W-NW FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN WL PREVAIL OVER KS DURING THIS PD. MCV OVER ERN KS/WRN MO WL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD THIS EVENING WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN ITS WAKE OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. MAIN SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM NRN MO...ACROSS NERN KS INTO CNTRL NE AT
MIDDAY. A WEAKER SFC TROF WAS DRAPED ACROSS SERN KS.
ALL MODELS SUGGEST SOME SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT TONIGHT BEHIND THE
MCV. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE ESPECIALLY IF STORMS FIRE IN MO TONIGHT.
700 WAA DEVELOPS OVER WRN/S-CNTRL NEBRASKA LATE TON IN CONJUNCTION
WITH WEAK 850 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. MAY SEE SCT T-STORMS
DEVELOP IN THAT REGION LATE THIS EVE OR OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT EXPECTING
DEVELOPMENT IN OUR FCST AREA. IF AN MCS FORMS, IT COULD VERY WELL
MOVG SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SERN KS WED AM/EARLY AFTERNOON. BY 12Z WED,
MODELS AGREE SFC FRONT WL EXTEND FROM SRN MO...ACROSS SERN AND CNTRL
KS UP INTO W/CNTRL NE. BY WED EVE, MODELS DISAGREE ON FRONTAL PSN.
FEEL NGM LIFTS IT NWD TOO FAR, AND PREFER SLIGHTLY N OF THE ETA PSN.
LOW LVL MOISTURE WL POOL ALONG AND N OF THIS FRONT. WATER VAPOR DOES
SHOW A SHORTWAVE IN ID/NV THIS PM, WHICH THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW
MOVG EWD ACROSS NEBRASKA LATE WED/WED NIGHT.  IT APPEARS AN EVEN
BETTER CHC WL BE FOR STORMS TO FIRE IN UPSLOPE PATTERN OVER WRN
KS/WRN NE DURING THE PM, WITH AN MCS FORMING AND MOVG SEWD ACROSS
THE FCST AREA WED NIGHT ON NOSE OF 30 KT LLJ. MAY SEE SOME ENHANCED
LIFT IN RR QUAD OF 80 KT UPR JET STREAK MOVG ACROSS NE/IA. MCS
ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO MORNING HRS THURS.

FOR TEMPS, WENT NR NGM MOS LOWS TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY BLO MOS WED IN
CNTRL KS IN AREA OF UPSLOPE/MOISTURE POOLING AND WITH MOS ELSEWHERE.
NR MOS LOWS WED NIGHT. BIASED TOWARD AVN FAN TEMPS THURS WITH
E-SERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND FRONT LIKELY SUPPRESSED SWD OVER SRN KS
FROM CONSIDERABLE MCS ACTIVITY FROM WED NIGHT.

EXTENDED PD...UPR RIDGE RETROGRADES INTO THE SRN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY
AND IS THEN FCST TO REMAIN THERE THIS WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE
MRF/CANADIAN. THE ECMWF TENDS TO MOVE THE RIDGE BACK EWD OVER KS/OK
BY 12Z MON WITH MRF KEEPING IT TO THE WEST. LEANING WITH
MRF/CANADIAN, PATTERN IS ONE OF NW FLOW ALOFT. SFC/850 FRONT MOVES
JUST SOUTH OF REGION BY FRI AM, AND THEN SHOULD EDGE FURTHER SWD
INTO N TX BY SUNDAY FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER MOISTURE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF FRONT FROM SRN KS UP INTO THE CENTRAL HI PLAINS
WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WL RESIDE. WL GENERALLY MAINTAIN INTEGRITY OF
PREVIOUS FCST FOR CHC OF MNLY NIGHTTIME/EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPS NR SEASONAL.

PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION WITH OFFICIAL FCST CONTAINED IN TOPZFPICT.

.ICT...NONE.