Tornado Warning 14, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO FFA COUNTIES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
310 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2000

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER W OK/KS BORDER LIKELY TO BE A TROUBLEMAKER
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  SVR STORMS WHICH PUSHED OVER TREES IN
MUCH OF BURLESON COUNTY AROUND 10 PM LAST NIGHT TOOK A BRIEF BREAK
BEFORE BLOWING UP AGAIN FURTHER SOUTH IN RICHER ENVIRONMENT WITH
HEALTHY 25-30 KT INFLOW.  HENCE SVR WATCHES CURRENTLY UP ALMOST ALL
OF CWA EXCEPT EXTREME NORTHERN COUNTIES.  HAVE OBSERVED SEVERAL
MINI-SUPERCELLS ON 88D WITH FAIRLY WELL DEFINED HOOKS, BWER, AND TVS
ALARMS, BUT THESE FEATURES HAVE BEEN CHARACTERISTICALLY BRIEF AND
MOST FEEDBACK ON WARNINGS THUS FAR HAS BEEN REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE
AND LARGE HAIL. EXPECT CURRENT WAVE OF SVR ACTIVITY TO REACH COAST
BY AROUND TIME WATCHES EXPIRE, BUT DON'T THINK THE "GAME OVER" LIGHT
IS YET ON THE EVENT HORIZON DUE TO PROGNOSIS FOR UPPER LOW AND WAVES
MOVING AROUND IT, PARTICULARLY THE PERSISTENT DIFLUENT ZONE IN 3H
WIND PATTERN WHICH SHOULD PERMIT REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH
ONLY THE SLIGHTEST NUDGE FROM INTERACTION OF FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.  NOT TO MENTION MORE BENIGN STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVER NRN CWA WELL BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE.

AS CONSEQUENCE... FIRST FLAG I WILL RAISE IN THE UPCOMING ZONE
PACKAGE WILL BE FFA FOR ALL OF CWA EXCEPT THE COASTAL COUNTIES.  THE
REASON FOR LEAVING THESE OUT IS THAT ONCE THIS INITIAL MCS PASSES,
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE DAY TO BE A LITTLE FURTHER INLAND
WHEN CONFUSED SFC FLOW FROM CURRENT SYSTEM ONCE AGAIN BECOMES
SOUTHERLY AND CAN REFOCUS ON REMNANTS OF FRONTAL (OR OTHER)
BOUNDARIES AND POSSIBLY ESTABLISH HEAVY RAIN ZONE JUST A FEW MILES
INLAND OF COAST.  IF THIS DOES NOT PAN OUT, MAY NEED TO EXTEND FFA
ALL THE WAY TO THE BEACHES... BUT WILL LEAVE THAT FOR MORNING UPDATE.

TEMPS A LITTLE DIFFICULT TODAY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF MID
80S TO SUDDENLY APPEAR IN 1 TO 2 HOUR BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER, BUT
WILL GENERALLY GO WITH MORE CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS OF GUIDANCE BASED
PRIMARILY ON EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SOUTH AND WEAK FRONT NORTH.

.KHGX...FFA TODAY FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT MATAGORDA BRAZORIA,
GALVESTON, CHAMBERS.

PRELIMS...
CLL TT 075/062 080/064 084 38886
IAH TT 078/065 081/065 083 38976
GLS TT 078/070 079/073 080 38966

38/45/41/48

GMZ330-TXZ197-210>212-226-227-235>237-021159-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
135 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
LINE FROM BRENHAM TO BROOKSHIRE TO RICHMOND TO NEAR ALVIN TIL 7 AM.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WALLER...JACKSON...COLORADO...
WASHINGTON...BRAZORIA...AUSTIN...WHARTON...MATAGORDA AND FORT BEND.

A UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LEADING TO
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
AND CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES SOMETIMES WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS.

GMZ330-TXZ197-210>212-226-227-235>237-021159-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
228 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2000

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TIL 7 AM.  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...WALLER...JACKSON...
COLORADO...BRAZOS...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...LIBERTY...
POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WASHINGTON...BRAZORIA...AUSTIN...
WHARTON...MATAGORDA AND FORT BEND.

A UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA LEADING TO
THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55
MPH...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
AND CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES SOMETIMES WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER RELIABLE WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
THE LATEST WARNINGS AND STATEMOENTS.