Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
255 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2000

...THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TONIGHT THEN MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY...

UNSEASONABLY STRONG STORM SYSTEM FOR MID JUNE WILL BRING THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE POLAR JET IN PHASE WITH NOSE OF THE 850 JET
BY 00Z OVER NW LOWER MI.  BEST SFC INSTABILITY AT 18Z WAS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI... CAPES IN THE 3500 TO 4500
J/KG RANGE. THERE IS AN AREA OF SCT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER NRN IN
AND OHIO MOVING NNE AROUND 35 KNOTS. THIS AREA WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN BY 300 PM AND SINCE THAT AREA HAS HAD THE
GREATEST AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... IS LIKELY TO SEE THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  ON THE OTHER
HAND... THE BEST DYNAMICS ( ASSOCIATE WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
POLAR JET AND THE 850 INFLOW AND BEST 700 TO 300 MB QVECT
CONVERGENCE )... RELATED DPVA... 700 MB VERTICAL VELOCITIES AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW PART OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. THIS
AREA WILL BE EFFECTED BY THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION FROM MO TO NEAR
CHI. THIS AREA HAS HAD CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND WITH THE SW SFC
WINDS AIR TEMPS MOSTLY NEAR 80 OVER WRN LWR MI. SO BEST DYNAMICS NOT
OVER AREA WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY. IN ANY EVENT... ENOUGH DYNAMICS
TO OVERCOME SOME OF THIS.  SO I EXPECT THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR
CHI TO BECOME THE NEARLY SOLID WITH A LARGE RAIN AREA BEHIND IT
(LAST 2 TO 3 HOURS). ALL OF THIS WILL CLEAR THE CWA BY 06Z AS 700 MB
DRY PUNCH MOVES THROUGH CWA.

ON THURSDAY... COLD THOUGH MOVES THROUGH CWA BUT WITH 135 KNOT SPEED
MAX COMING INTO SRN BC THIS EVENING... YET ANOTHER DEEP TROF WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL U. S.  BY FRIDAY.  THIS RESULTS IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVING INTO CWA BY THURSDAY EVENING.  700 THOUGH WITH
CURRENT SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.  WITH 700 TO 500
LAPSE RATE AROUND 5.5 C/KM .... SFC DIVERGENCE AND 300 MB CONVERGENCE
STILL CAN NOT SEE MUCH CHC OF SHOWERS THURSDAY.  EVEN SO...THERE IS
NOT MUCH OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ON THE SOUNDING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON... THTE DOES DECREASE WITH HEIGHT TO NEAR 7000 FT AND EQ
LVL IS NEAR 25000 FT.  SO WILL HAVE 30 PCT CHC OF SHWR... BUT REALLY
DOUBT IT WILL HAPPEN. MOSTLY PUTTING IT IN SINCE IT WAS IN EARLY
MORNING ZONES... IT IS POSSIBLE AND THIS WAY BETTER CONTINUITY
BETWEEN ZONE SETS.

THURSDAY NIGHT WARM ADVECTION FROM NEXT SYSTEM UNDERWAY AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINNING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEF IN THE 30 TO
50 MB RANGE... SO WILL FCST CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.

FRIDAY JET CORE WILL BE NORTH OF LWR MI SO GRR CWA IN WARM SECTOR.
ENOUGH (MARGINAL) MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH TROUGH TO
PUT CHC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.  ALSO... THTE
DECREASES WITH HEIGHT TO NEAR 10000 FT AND CAPES RISE TO NEAR 1500
J/KG ON BUFKIT BY 18Z ON FRIDAY.  BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR COMBINED
WITH ALL OF THAT LEADS TO AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  WILL FCST WARM THAN MOS DUE TO BEING IN WARM SECTOR
AND BEST MOISTURE STILL WEST OF LWR MI SO THERE WILL BE SOME
SUNSHINE.

ZONES BY 330 PM.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
MRF CONTINUES TO INDICATE A SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...SO WILL KEEP THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
WORDING IN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
SHORT DISCUSSION THIS GO AROUND WITH THE IMPENDING WEATHER TO THE
SOUTH.

.GRR...NONE.
WDM

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-151100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1200 NOON EDT WED JUN 14 2000

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL STATEMENT FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER
OF LOWER MICHIGAN FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...

DISPATCHERS PLEASE PASS THIS INFORMATION ALONG TO YOUR EMERGENCY
MANAGERS.

HAZARDS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS BETWEEN 3 PM AND 11 PM OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN.  THE GREATEST THREAT FROM THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60 MPH.  THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF LARGE
HAIL... BUT WITH FREEZING LEVELS NEAR 14000 FT... THE STRONG WINDS
WOULD BE THE GREATER THREAT.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY... AND COULD CAUSE SUDDEN RAPID RISES IN RIVERS...
CREEKS AND STREAMS... AS WELL AS SOME ROAD AND BASEMENT FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL INTERACT WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND INDIVIDUAL
STORM CELL MOVEMENT WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION...SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

...HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THE NEXT THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LATER STATEMENTS WILL BETTER
DEFINE ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

WDM

MIZ043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-150000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
222 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2000

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF LOWER MICHIGAN EFFECTIVE
UNTIL 800 PM EDT WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES

IN WEST CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     OCEANA...MUSKEGON AND NEWAYGO

IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     INGHAM...CLINTON...JACKSON...IONIA...CALHOUN AND EATON

IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN
     KALAMAZOO...KENT...VAN BUREN...OTTAWA...BARRY AND ALLEGAN

IN CENTRAL MICHIGAN
     GRATIOT...MONTCALM...MECOSTA AND ISABELLA

THIS WATCH INCLUDES THE ADJOINING COASTAL WATERS OF AFFECTED
LAKESHORE COUNTIES.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA.
REMEMBER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58
MPH AND/OR HAIL THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR GREATER. IF
YOU LIVE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA YOU SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR THE/
LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

NNNN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI
432 PM EDT WED JUN 14 2000

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

336 PM     BANGOR                   MI     WIND DAMAGE
06/14/00   VAN BUREN                       TREE DOWN
                                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC