Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 PM CST WED MAR 8 2000

NOT HARD TO FIND IMPRESSIVE LATE WINTER/EARLY SPRING STORM OVR THE CNTRL
PLAINS. WL FOCUS ON FIRST 24 HRS AS THIS TIME FRAME TO SEE A RAPID
RETURN TO WINTER THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. MAIN FCST CONCERNS WL BE
TIMING OF RAIN TO SNOW...AMT OF SNOW AND TEMPS.

STACKED LOW OVR ERN NEBRASKA STILL FCST BY MDLS TO MV NEWD INTO SRN WI
BY 12Z THU. AFTER THAT TIME...MDLS DISAGREE ON SPD OF SHEARING THAT
TAKES PLACE AS LOW ENCOUNTERS CONFLUENT FLOW. ETA THE SLOWEST...NGM THE
QUICKEST AND AS USUAL...AVN IN BETWEEN. HARD TO BELIEVE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WL OPEN UP AND WEAKEN AS FAST AS THE NGM. FURTHERMORE...THEN NGM WAS WAY
TOO COLD WITH ITS INITIAL 8H TEMPS. WL LEAN ON AN ETA/AVN COMPROMISE FOR
THE FCST. BASED ON THIS THINKING...EXPECT A ROUND OF SHWRS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS THE UPR LOW APPROACHES. VSBL SATL IMAGERY
ALREADY SHOWING SOME TOWERING CU OFF TO OUR SW. COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
SURGE INTO NW WI LTR TNGT AND SHOULD SEE A MIX OF PCPN OVR N-CNTRL WI
BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE REST OF THE FCST AREA TO SEE OCNL SHWRS/TSTMS.

ON THU...THE LOW WL CONT TO WEAKEN/SHEAR OUT AND HEAD OFF TO THE EAST.
8H TEMPS DROP ANYWHERE FROM 8 TO 15 DEGS C BETWEEN 12Z THU-00Z FRI. ANY
LEFTOVER RAIN WL QUICKLY CHG TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING WITH BEST CHCS
OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE DEFORMATION ZN TO RESIDE. ALTHO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH...THE
COMBINATION OF SNOW...WIND AND TEMP DROP FROM TDA WEIGHED HEAVILY ENUF
TO WARRANT A WINTER WX ADVY. TEMPS BY 00Z FRI WL BE 30 TO 50 DEGS COOLER
THAN CURRENT READINGS.

WEATHER TO QUIET DOWN THU NIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE IN SRN CANADA
TRIES TO PUSH SOME DRY AIR SWD. A SHRTWV DROPPING SE THRU THE MEAN FLOW
MAY TRY AND PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES ON FRI...HOWEVER AM NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSED ATTM.

TEMPS A REAL CRAPSHOOT FOR TNGT AND THU PENDING ON SPD OF COLD AIR.
USING THICKNESS LVLS AND CURRENT TEMPS...HAVE GONE A BIT WARMER THAN
GUID FOR TNGT AND EARLY THU. READINGS ON THU SHOULD BE STDY OR SLOWLY
FALLING AS CAA TAKES OVR. FOR THE LATTER TWO PDS...TOOK THE MIDDLE OF
THE ROAD BETWEEN COOL NGM AND WARM AVN.

COORD WITH MQT AND DLH.

.GRB...WINTER WEATHER ADVY N-CNTRL WI LATE TNT INTO THU MRNG
       WIZ005-010>012-018-019.
       WINTER WEATHER ADVY FAR NE WI THU NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN
       TO WAUSAUKEE
       WIZ013-021.

KALLAS
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB