Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
430 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2000

CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EARLY
PERIODS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SAME PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH RIDGE BUILDING
INTO THE PLAINS WHILE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG VORT OVER WESTERN ONTARIO...DROPPING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A SECOND VORT IS SEEN OVER WEST CENTRAL MN. BOTH OF THESE
FEATURES PRODUCING SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ATTM.  OVER THE CWA...
PESKY SHOWER/TSTM OVER CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING...FINALLY GAVE UP. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG SEEN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTH- CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WI.

FOR CONTINUITY WILL FOLLOW ETA FOR GUIDANCE ON THIS PACKAGE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM FOCUS WILL BE DEVELOPING COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SEEN AS
SURFACE TROF OVER NORTHWEST MN. THIS FRONT TO PASS THROUGH EASTERN WI
THIS EVENING. GOOD WAA ADVECTION AT 850MB AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. 850 TEMPS
AROUND 18C SUGGEST HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. HAVE TAPERED DOWN A FEW
DEGREES IN AREAS WITH FOG. MID 80S WILL REALIZE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE.
WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 BETWEEN 850 AND 700MB...CAPES/LI'S OF 1000/-2 TO
-4 RESPECTIVELY...AND 70KT H3 SPEED MAX EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER AREA LATER
TODAY HAVE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS EVEN WITH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE. ETA
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH DEVELOPING
FRONT OVER EASTERN ZONES WITH SPC HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT AND EXTENDED THEM INTO THE EVENING OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES.

ON FRIDAY NW FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED WITH CAA BEGINNING. WILL SEE FEW DAYS
OF UNSEASONABLY COOL BUT PLEASANT WEATHER. WITH TROF DEEPENING TO OUR
EAST AND MODELS HINTING AT CYCLONIC FLOW OVER EASTERN WI CAN NOT RULE
OUT CHANCE OF PCPN ON FRI EITHER. NGM IS HINTING AT THIS SCENARIO...BUT
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY FOR NOW.

COORDINATED WITH MQT.

.GRB...NONE.

TE
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-131900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL TRIGGER THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN THE SHOTRT-TERM FORECAST ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

MG
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-131900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU JUL 13 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
AND THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL TRIGGER THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS
LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH SOME WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST ONCE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

MG
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB