Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2000

PRIMARY CONCERN IS OBVIOUSLY THE FLASH FLOOD AND SVR WX THREAT
OVERNIGHT. SECONDARY CONCERN IS TRYING TO RESOLVE PRECIP CHCS FOR LATER
PERIODS.

TSTM OUTFLOW HAS COVERED ALL OF GRB CWA...WITH EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDINESS
AND PRECIP LIMITING SUNSHINE AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT
H8 MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE OUTFLOW HAS PROVIDED ENOUGH LIFT TO
SUSTAIN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER ALL BUT OUR SW COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS PARTS OF NC/NE/EC WI OVER THE
PAST 18-24 HOURS...WITH 3-7 INCH AMOUNTS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN VILAS
COUNTY SEWD TO MTW COUNTY. STG TSTMS CURRENTLY EXPLODING TO OUR NW IN
A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS SHOULD MOVE ESE INTO GRB CWA...SUSTAINED BY
AN APPROACHING S/W TROF AND RRQ OF UPPER JET. THUS...EXPECT MORE
HVY RAINFALL AND ISOLD SVR STORMS TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE CWA. AREAS
OF LEAST CONCERN FOR FLOODING INCLUDE CNTRL WI AND DOOR COUNTY. WILL
LEAVE DOOR CO OUT OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL INCLUDE CNTRL
COUNTIES PER COORD WITH ARX.

BEST BET FOR STORMS TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE ACROSS C/EC WI...WITH
CAPPING LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. BEST AFTERNOON THREAT SHOULD BE IN
OUR NC COUNTIES...WITH CAP WEAKENING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE PRECIP THREAT SHOULD
BECOME FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MUCH OF THIS
RESOLUTION OUT OF THE FCST WORDING DUE TO MANY OBVIOUS UNCERTAINTIES.

.GRB...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TONIGHT
       WIZ005...010>013-018>021-030-031-035>040-045-048>050

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-081900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TO UPGRADE THREAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 5:00
PM ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM RHINELANDER TO CLINTONVILLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WINDS OF
40 MPH.  ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.  FURTHER WEST NEAR A
WARM FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.  THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

KENNEDY
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-081900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TO UPGRADE THREAT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AFTER 5:00
PM ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM RHINELANDER TO CLINTONVILLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND WINDS OF
40 MPH.  ANY SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD BE ISOLATED.  FURTHER WEST NEAR A
WARM FRONT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES.  THE STORMS WILL
LIKELY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT...INCREASING THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

KENNEDY
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
259 PM CDT SAT JUL 8 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0945 AM    MARION                    WI   WIND DAMAGE
07/08/00   WAUPACA                        EIGHT TREES SNAPPED. ONE
                                          FELL ON A CAR.  TIME APPROX.

JKL/RS