Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
415 AM CDT SUN JUN 18 2000

WET PATTERN CONT ACRS THE AREA...WITH EVEN WK LITTLE DISTURBANCES
KICKING OFF PCPN. SHRTWV THAT MOVD THRU E-C WI EARLY THIS MORNING
GENERATED PCPN THAT WAS TOTALLY MISSED BY ALL THE MODELS. SML VORT AND
850 MB WAA CREATED A CLUSTER OF TSTMS ACRS MN EARLY THIS MORNING...AGAIN
THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE SIG THAN THE MODELS PROGGED. STAYED CLOSE TO
PREV FCST WITH POPS AND PCPN FOR TDA. TRIMMED MAXES A TAD DUE TO
EXPECTED CLD COVER. TRAJ FCST SHOWS THAT THE AIR ARRIVING IN THE AREA
TDA PRODUCED HIGHS AOB 70 YDA.

WK BOUNDARY WL LINGER ACRS THE N TNGT. AS 850 MB WINDS INCR...SOME LIFT
OVER THIS BOUNDARY AND YET ANOTHER SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH COULD KICK OFF
MORE SHOWERS. CONFINED PCPN THREAT TNGT TO THE N AND LINGERED IT INTO
MON.

MUCH MORE SIG SYSTEM WL APPROACH THE AREA LATE MONDAY AND THEN SWEEP
ACRS THE RGN BY WED MORNING. SYSTEM SHOULD TAP INTO DEEP MOISTURE AND
GENERATE SIG INSTABILITY...SO ANOTHER MAJOR RAINFALL EVENT IS LIKELY.
THE NW 3/4 OF MY FCST AREA IS IN THE SPC DY 2 SLGT RISK. RISK WOULD COME
WITH NOCTURNAL STORMS ASSOC WITH STG LLJ. HV BEEFED UP THE MON NGT
PORTION OF THE FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. ALSO HIT WORDING HARDER ON TUE
AS COLD FRONT PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. NEW MRF AND
CANADIAN MODEL RUNS HV BACKED AWAY FROM THE IDEA OF HAVING A MAJOR SFC
WV RIDING NE ALONG THE FRONT WED. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE OTHER
MED RANGE MODELS...AND SUGGESTS THAT THE SIG PCPN WL END WITH FROPA. THE
MODELS ALSO ARE SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NEXT SYSTEM...RAISING HOPES FOR A
LITTLE LONGER STRETCH OF DRY WX BTWN SYSTEMS.

COORD WITH MKE AND MQT.

.GRB...NONE.

SKOWRONSKI
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-181900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. THE AIR ACROSS THE REGION IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. WIND GUSTS OVER 30
MPH AND PEA-SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY OR TONIGHT.

UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHEN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING.

JKL
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-181900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY OR TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS IS THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE STATE. THE AIR ACROSS THE REGION IS MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...SO THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA. WIND GUSTS OVER 30
MPH AND PEA-SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY OR TONIGHT.

UPDATES WILL BE AVAILABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST WHEN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING.

JKL
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
151 PM CDT SUN JUN 18 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0141 PM    MOUNTAIN                  WI   .75 INCH HAIL
06/18/00   OCONTO                         HAIL AND WINDS SHREDDED
                                          LEAVES OFF TREES AT
                                          CAMPGROUND.

JKL