Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
415 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THEN AFFECTS OF
CLOUDS ON TEMPERATURES...

0830Z IR SHOWED INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER JET CORE THAT EXTENDED FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AS ANALYZED
ON 00Z 300 MB CHART.  RADAR SUMMARY SHOWED THAT UNDER THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET...SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE INCREASING FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.  THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.  A LARGE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA
WAS WEAKENING.  THIS WEAKENING SHOULD ALLOW CONTINUED MOISTURE TO FLOW
NORTH INTO THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN IOWA AND MINNESOTA.

MODELS INDICATE UPPER JET AND ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE WILL MOVE OVER MOST
OF FORECAST AREA TODAY AND LINGER ACROSS THE EAST THIS EVENING.  SURFACE
FRONT LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TEMPORARILY STALL...WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT.  THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION.  CONVECTIVE DAY 1
OUTLOOK HAS PLACED GENERAL THUNDER OVER ALL BUT NORTHWEST CORNER OF
FORECAST AREA.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...
BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND CANADIAN FRONT...PLUS STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROVIDE THE CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

WARM FRONT ONLY REACHED AS FAR SOUTH AS EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.  COLD FRONT HAS MOVE JUST FAR ENOUGH EAST
SO THAT WARM AIR HAS BEEN PUSHED A LITTLE OFF TO THE EAST.  SOME WARM
AIR MAY MAKE ANOTHER RUN THIS AFTERNOON INTO SOUTHEAST CORNER AS SURFACE
WAVE BACKS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST A LITTLE.  WARMING SHOULD STILL BE
LIMITED THOUGH DUE TO DEEP CLOUDS AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.  REST OF
FORECAST AREA DEEP WITHIN THE COOLER AIR MASS.  OVERALL WILL FOLLOW MUCH
COOLER ETA 2 METER TEMPERATURES WHICH SEEM TO DO WELL IN SITUATIONS
WHERE CLOUDS AND AIR MASS CHANGES ARIE TAKING PLACE.

.GRB...NONE.

KENNEDY
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-121500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION TO TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
557 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO WAUSAUKEE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TODAY...
THEN MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST TONIGHT.  AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE FRONT...MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON.  WEATHER UPDATES CAN ALSO BE FOUND
IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

KENNEDY
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-122100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1005 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AND PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REST OF FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MOIST AIR AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EVENING.  CLOUDS CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING...HOWEVER ANY
BREAKS...WOULD LEAD TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

WEATHER UPDATES CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOZAA.GOV/GRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1027 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1025 AM    1 W COLOMA                WI   1 INCH HAIL
05/12/00   WAUSHARA

1027 AM    COLOMA                    WI   1.5 INCH HAIL
05/12/00   WAUSHARA                       HAIL COVERING THE GROUND

JKL/AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1042 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2000

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1038 AM    2 MILES E COLOMA          WI   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/12/00   WAUSHARA

1039 AM    COLOMA                    WI   2 INCH HAIL
05/12/00   WAUSHARA                       HEAVY CAR DAMAGE, SIDING
                                          DAMAGE TO HOUSE

TE