Severe Thunderstorm Warning 151, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 PM MDT WED JUL 5 2000

...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
TEMPERATURES (RECORD HIGHS?) THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES FLOATING AROUND THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA WITH
KAIN-FRITSCH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS FOCUS' PRECIP ALONG THE
COLORADO-KANSAS BORDER AND JUST TO THE EAST. WILL WAIT AS LONG AS
POSSIBLE TO ADJUST AREAS OF PRECIP BEFORE ISSUING ZONES. OTHER THAN
THAT...CLEAR AND WARM WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70.

UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE
SOURCES DECREASING...HENCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.

QUESTION BECOMES HIGHS AND LOWS. DIURNAL RANGES THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30 DEGREES OVER THE EASTERN CWA WITH NEARLY 35
DEGREES OVER THE WEST. SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE BASED ON CURRENT
PATTERN. WILL FOLLOW THE AVN 2M TEMP GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...CUTTING
ABOUT 5 DEGREES OFF THE 2M ETA HIGHS.

FOR TONIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 60S/65 TO 70. SOUTH
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

THURSDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. 2M ETA AND FWC TEMPS AGREE ON AFTERNOON
HIGHS AROUND 100 WEST AND 102 OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
POSSIBLE RECORDS IN JEOPARDY WOULD BE YUMA (100 IN 1964). OTHER SITES
AROUND 105. WINDS START OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WESTERN CWA
BUT SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY. OVER THE EAST...LOOKS TO
BE BREEZY AS FWC WINDS AROUND 15KTS SUSTAINED AND ETA WINDS AROUND
20KTS.

FRIDAY...SUNNY AND HOT. RECORD TEMPS IN JEOPARDY WOULD AGAIN BE YUMA
(101 IN 1985) WITH OTHER SITES AROUND 105. WILL GO WITH HIGHS
AGAIN OF 100 TO 102.

IN THE EXTENDED...QUESTION OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ARISES AS
FORECAST K-INDICES APPROACH LEVELS SUGGESTIVE FOR THEIR
DEVELOPMENT. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER WE'RE CAPPED OR NOT.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...500MB HEIGHT CENTER BASICALLY OVER THE
AREA WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES AROUND. AXIS OF HIGHER K-INDICES AND
TOTALS-TOTALS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WHERE 700MB
TEMPS ARE LOWER (+13C TO +15C) AND 700MB DEWPOINTS ARE +1C TO +3C.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA SUGGEST CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND
105F. BASED ON THAT I'LL KEEP IT DRY AND HOT.

.GLD...NONE.

THEDE

COZ090-091-KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ079>081-060200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
556 PM MDT WED JUL 5 2000

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION EXTREME
EASTERN COLORADO...EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND A LARGE PORTION
OF NORTHWEST KANSAS UNTIL 11 PM MDT (MIDNIGHT CDT)...

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE COMBINING WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND AN
OLD THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR YUMA AND
KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EASTERN COLORADO...DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...AND RED
WILLOW COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND CHEYENNE...RAWLINS...
DECATUR...NORTON...SHERMAN...THOMAS...SHERIDAN...AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM MDT
(MIDNIGHT CDT).

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  MOVE TO
AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.  IF
OUTSIDE...MOVE TO SHELTER...PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

BARKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
622 PM MDT WED JUL 05 2000

TIME(MDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0550 PM    3 E MAX                   NE   1 INCH HAIL
07/05/00   DUNDY

0550 PM    4 E MAX                   NE   1 INCH HAIL
07/05/00   DUNDY                          REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0600 PM    4 W STRATTON              NE   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/05/00   HITCHCOCK

N